Integrated Modeling for Road Condition Prediction — Phase 3 Evaluation Report

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Contact Information: Operations Feedback at OperationsFeedback@dot.gov

U.S. Department of Transportation
Federal Highway Administration
Office of Operations
1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
Washington, DC 20590
ops.fhwa.dot.gov

FHWA-HOP-20-062

December 2020

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Table of Contents

[ Notice and Quality Assurance Statement ] [ Technical Report Documentation Page ] [ SI Modern Metric Conversion Factors ] [ List of Acronyms ]

Chapter 1. Introduction
	Project Description
	Purpose and Overview
Chapter 2. Evaluation Approach
	Evaluation Objectives
	Approach
		Operational Impacts Study
		Usefulness Study
Chapter 3. Results
	Operational Impacts Study
		Interstate 435 Eastbound at State Line Road
		Interstate 435 Northbound at East Stadium Drive
		Interstate 435 Eastbound at East Antioch Road
	Usefulness Study
Chapter 4. Findings
	Did Integrated Modeling for Road Condition Prediction Have an Operational Impact?
	Did Users COnsider IMRCP Information as Useful?
Chapter 5. Conclusion
Appendix A. Speed Forecast Error Data

List of Figures

Figure 1. Map. Integrated Model for Road Condition Prediction Phase 2 and Phase 3 deployment area in Kansas City area.

Figure 2. Map. Link detector locations.

Figure 3. Equation. Absolute error formula.

Figure 4. Equation. Relative absolute error formula.

Figure 5. Equation. Root mean square error formula.

Figure 6. Plot. Interstate 435 and State Line Road historical speeds, November 11, 2019.

Figure 7. Plot. Interstate 435 and State Line Road forecast speeds, November 11, 2019.

Figure 8. Plot. Interstate 435 and State Line Road historical speeds, November 29, 2019.

Figure 9. Plot. Interstate 435 and State Line Road forecast speeds, November 29, 2019.

Figure 10. Plot. Interstate 435 and State Line Road historical speeds, December 15, 2019.

Figure 11. Plot. Interstate 435 and State Line Road forecast speeds, December 15, 2019.

Figure 12. Plot. Interstate 435 and State Line Road historical speeds, December 16, 2019.

Figure 13. Plot. Interstate 435 and State Line Road forecast speeds, December 16, 2019.

Figure 14. Plot. Interstate 435 and State Line Road historical speeds, December 17, 2019.

Figure 15. Plot. Interstate 435 and State Line Road forecast speeds, December 17, 2019.

Figure 16. Graph. Machine learning-based prediction absolute error at Interstate 435 and State Line Road.

Figure 17. Graph. Traffic Estimation and Prediction System absolute error at Interstate 435 and State Line Road.

Figure 18. Graph. Machine learning-based prediction relative absolute Error at Interstate 435 and State Line Road.

Figure 19. Graph. Traffic Estimation and Prediction System relative absolute error at Interstate 435 and State Line Road.

Figure 20. Graph. Machine learning-based prediction root mean square error at Interstate 435 and State Line Road.

Figure 21. Graph. Traffic Estimation and Prediction System root mean square error at Interstate 435 and State Line Road.

Figure 22. Plot. Interstate 435 and East Stadium Drive historical speeds, November 11, 2019.

Figure 23. Plot. Interstate 435 and East Stadium Drive forecast speeds, November 11, 2019.

Figure 24. Plot. Interstate 435 and East Stadium Drive historical speeds, November 29, 2019.

Figure 25. Plot. Interstate 435 and East Stadium Drive forecast speeds, November 29, 2019.

Figure 26. Plot. Interstate 435 and East Stadium Drive historical speeds, December 15, 2019.

Figure 27. Plot. Interstate 435 and East Stadium Drive forecast speeds, December 15, 2019.

Figure 28. Plot. Interstate 435 and East Stadium Drive historical speeds, December 16, 2019.

Figure 29. Plot. Interstate 435 and East Stadium Drive forecast speeds, December 16, 2019.

Figure 30. Plot. Interstate 435 and East Stadium Drive historical speeds, December 17, 2019.

Figure 31. Plot. Interstate 435 and East Stadium Drive forecast speeds, December 17, 2019.

Figure 32. Graph. Machine learning-based prediction absolute error at Interstate 435 and East Stadium Drive.

Figure 33. Graph. Machine learning-based prediction relative absolute error at Interstate 435 and East Stadium Drive.

Figure 34. Graph. Machine learning-based prediction root mean square error at Interstate 435 and East Stadium Drive.

Figure 35. Plot. Interstate 435 and East Antioch Road historical speeds, January 29, 2020.

Figure 36. Plot. Interstate 435 and East Antioch Road forecast speeds, January 29, 2020.

Figure 37. Plot. Interstate 435 and East Antioch Road historical speeds, February 12, 2020.

Figure 38. Plot. Interstate 435 and East Antioch Road forecast speeds, February 12, 2020.

Figure 39. Graph. Machine learning-based prediction absolute error at Interstate 435 and East Antioch Road.

Figure 40. Graph. Traffic Estimation and Prediction System absolute error at Interstate 435 and East Antioch Road.

Figure 41. Graph. Machine learning-based prediction relative absolute error at Interstate 435 and East Antioch Road.

Figure 42. Graph. Traffic Estimation and Prediction System relative absolute error at Interstate 435 and East Antioch Road.

Figure 43. Graph. Machine learning-based prediction root mean square error at Interstate 435 and East Antioch Road.

Figure 44. Graph. Traffic Estimation and Prediction System root mean square error at Interstate 435 and East Antioch Road.

List of Tables

Table 1. Integrated Modeling for Road Condition Prediction evaluation key questions and objectives.

Table 2. Weather conditions by locatino and date.

Table 3. Description of weather events.

Table 4. Absolute error 80 percent quantiles (in miles per hour) at Interstate 435 and State Line Road.

Table 5. Relative absolute error 80 percent quantiles (percent) at Interstate 435 and State Line Road.

Table 6. Root mean square error (in miles per hour) at Interstate 435 and State Line Road.

Table 7. Absolute error 80 percent quantiles (in miles per hour) at Interstate 435 and East Stadium Drive.

Table 8. Relative absolute error 80 percent quantiles (in miles per hour) at Interstate 435 and East Stadium Drive.

Table 9. RMS error 80 percent quantiles (in miles per hour) at Interstate 435 and East Stadium Drive.

Table 10. Absolute error 80 percent quantiles (in miles per hour) at Interstate 435 and East Antioch Road.

Table 11. Relative absolute error 80 percent quantiles (percent) at Interstate 435 and East Antioch Road.

Table 12. Root mean square error (in miles per hour) at Interstate 435 and East Antioch Road.