Office of Operations
21st Century Operations Using 21st Century Technologies

Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation for Traffic Incident Management Applications

Evaluation of TIM AMS Methods

This subsection provides a qualitative assessment of incident modeling methods based on selected criteria.

Qualitative Assessment Based on Selected Criteria (Review Matrix)

Table 2 shows a comprehensive assessment of incident modeling methods.

Table 2. TIM Review Matrix
Category Application Data Requirements Ease of Use Amount of Applications in Practice Validation Efforts Consistency with Traffic Flow Theory Known Shortcomings Qualitative Assessment of Validity of Results Document Used/Reference
Development and Evaluation of TIM Plans Analysis and Valuation of TIM Strategies Decision Support Systems (On-line/Off-line) Incident Prediction and Detection Incident Duration Prediction TIM Performance Measures Relationship between TIM and Overall Congestion/Travel Time Reliability Benefit-Cost Analysis of TIM Programs/ Strategies Safety Analysis Applications Real-Time ATIS Integrated Corridor Management Appropriate for Long-Range Planning Appropriate for Corridor Planning Appropriate for Deployment Planning Appropriate for Benefit/Cost Analysis
Measuring Impacts of Incidents on Traffic Flow
Data Collection and Archiving (Incident and Travel Time Data)
Roadway Sensors/Detectors Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Extensive Easy Many Unknown N/A
  • Detector health
  • Spot measurement (not continuous)
Good for Empirical-Based Statistical Analysis
  • Decomposition of Travel Time Reliability into Various Sources: Incidents, Weather, Work Zones, Special Events, and Base Capacity, Kwon, J. et al., TRB Annual Meeting, January 2011.
  • Freeway Travel Time Forecasting Under Incident, Xia, J. et al., Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Issue 2178, 2010.
  • Decision Support Tools to Support the Operations of Traffic Management Centers (TMC), Hadi, M. et al., January 2011.
  • Modeling Travel Time Variability on Urban Links in London, Hasan, S. et al., European Transport Conference, 2009.
  • A Cellular Automata Approach to Estimate Incident-Related Travel Time on Interstate 66 in Near Real Time, Wang, Z. et al., Virginia Transportation Research Council, 2010.
  • Modeling Incident-Related Traffic and Estimating Travel Time with a Cellular Automaton Model, Murray-Tuite, P, Transportation Research Board 89th Annual Meeting, 2010.
Freeway Service Patrol (FSP) Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Extensive Moderate Many Unknown N/A
  • Not all incidents are included as FSP does not respond to all incidents
Good for Empirical-Based Statistical Analysis
  • iMiT: A Tool for Dynamically Predicting Incident Durations, Secondary Incident Occurrence, and Incident Delays, Khattak, A. et al., TRB Annual Meeting, January 2011.
  • Benefit-Cost Analysis of Freeway Service Patrol Programs: Methodology and Case Study, Chou, C. et al.
Accident Logs Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Extensive Moderate Many Unknown N/A
  • Not all incidents are included in accident logs and some of the records are not accurate
Good for Empirical-Based Statistical Analysis
  • Structure Learning for the Estimation of Non-Parametric Incident Duration Prediction, Demiroluk, S. et al., Transportation Research Board 90th Annual Meeting.
  • Development of a Hybrid Model for Freeway Incident Duration: A Case Study in Maryland, Kim, W. et al., 17th ITS World Congress, Busan, 2010.
  • Are Incident Durations and Secondary Incidents Interdependent, Khattak, A. et al., Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board Issue Number: 2099, 2009.
  • Identifying Secondary Crashes and Their Contributing Factors, Zhan, C. et al., Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board Issue Number: 2102, 2009.
  • Analysis of Freeway Incident Duration for ATIS Applications, Kim, W. et al., 15th World Congress on Intelligent Transport Systems and ITS America’s Annual Meeting, 2008.
  • Dynamic Incident Progression Curve for Classifying Secondary Traffic Crashes, Journal of Transportation Engineering, December 2010.
TMC Data Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Extensive Moderate Many Unknown N/A
  • May contain incomplete information
Good for Empirical-Based Statistical Analysis
  • Incident Duration Prediction for In-Vehicle Navigation System, Hu, J. et al., Transportation Research Board 90th Annual Meeting, 2011.
  • What Is the Role of Multiple Secondary Incidents in Traffic Operations, Zhang, H. et al., Journal of Transportation Engineering Volume: 136, 2010.
  • Decision Support Tools to Support the Operations of Traffic Management Centers (TMC), Hadi, M. et al., January 2011.
Simulation Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Extensive Difficult Many Unknown N/A
  • Resource intensive (cost, expertise, analysis time)
Good if the simulation model is developed and calibrated well
  • Use of Simulation-Based Forecast for Real Time Traffic Management Decision Support: The Case of the Madrid Traffic Centre, Torday, A. et al., European Transport Conference, 2008.
  • Measurement of Uncertainty Costs with Dynamic Traffic Simulations, Marchal, F. et al., Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2008.
  • On-line Microscopic Traffic Simulation to Support Real Time Traffic Management Strategies, Barcelo, J. et al.
  • Benefit-Cost Analysis of Freeway Service Patrol Programs: Methodology and Case Study, Chou, C. et al.
  • Estimation of Nonrecurring Post-incident Traffic Recovery Time for Different Flow Regimes: Comparing Shock Wave Theory and Simulation Modeling, Jeihani, M. et al., Transportation Research Board 90th Annual Meeting, 2011.
  • Regional Emergency Action Coordination Team (REACT) Evaluation, by Battelle, July 2002.
Automatic Number Plate Reader (ANPR) Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Extensive Difficult Rare Unknown N/A
  • Resource intensive (cost and analysis time)
Good for Empirical-Based Statistical Analysis
  • Modeling Travel Time Variability on Urban Links in London, Hasan, S. et al., European Transport Conference, 2009.
Web-based Data Collection and Archiving System Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Extensive Easy Some Unknown N/A
  • Unknown
Good if the quality of data feeding into the system is good
  • Freeway and Arterial System of Transportation (FAST) Dashboard (Regional Transportation Commission (RTC) of Southern Nevada).
Analytical Methods
Coordinated Highways Action Response Team (CHART, University of Maryland, Model-Based Stochastic Approach) Yes Yes Yes No No No No Yes No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Minimal Easy One Unknown N/A; Statistical-based
  • Only includes a volume term – should include a V/C term instead
Will overestimate delay at low volumes
  • Performance Evaluation and Benefit Analysis for CHART in Year 2009, Chang, G. et al.
Quantile Regression (Empirical-Based Statistical Method) Yes Yes Yes No No Yes Yes Yes No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Extensive Easy One Unknown N/A; Statistical-based
  • It is site specific and hard to make generalization to other facilities
Results are valid as long as data input is reasonably accurate
  • Decomposition of Travel Time Reliability into Various Sources: Incidents, Weather, Work Zones, Special Events, and Base Capacity, Kwon, J. et al., TRB Annual Meeting, January 2011.
Simulation Yes Yes Yes No No Yes Yes Yes No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Extensive Difficult One Unknown N/A; Simulation-based
  • Unknown
Moderate
  • Measurement of Uncertainty Costs with Dynamic Traffic Simulations, Marchal, F. et al., Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2008.
  • On-line Microscopic Traffic Simulation to Support Real Time Traffic Management Strategies, Barcelo, J. et al.
  • Regional Emergency Action Coordination Team (REACT) Evaluation, by Battelle, July 2002.
  • Estimation of Incident Delays on Arterial Streets, Yang, S. et al., Transportation Research Board 87th Annual Meeting, 2008.
Predicting Impacts of Incidents on Traffic Flow
Regression Model Yes Yes Yes No No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Extensive Easy Two Unknown N/A; Statistical-based
  • N/A
Good
  • Estimation of Nonrecurring Postincident Traffic Recovery Time for Different Flow Regimes: Comparing Shock Wave Theory and Simulation Modeling, Jeihani, M. et al., Transportation Research Board 90th Annual Meeting, 2011.
  • Estimation of Incident Delays on Arterial Streets, Yang, S. et al., Transportation Research Board 87thAnnual Meeting, 2008.
Shock Wave Model Yes Yes Yes No No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Moderate Moderate One Unknown Yes
  • Tend to report shorter recovery time as it only calculates queue dissipation time which does not necessarily equate with the time to return to pre-incident normal traffic flow condition
Moderate
  • Estimation of Nonrecurring Postincident Traffic Recovery Time for Different Flow Regimes: Comparing Shock Wave Theory and Simulation Modeling, Jeihani, M. et al., Transportation Research Board 90th Annual Meeting, 2011.
Queuing Analysis Yes Yes Yes No No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Moderate Easy Three Moderate validation efforts Yes
  • Unknown
Moderate
  • Primary and Secondary Incident Management: Predicting Durations in Real Time, Khattak, A. et al., Final Report VCTIR 11-R11, Virginal Center for Transportation Innovation and Research, April 2011.
  • Decision Support Tools to Support the Operations of Traffic Management Centers (TMC), Hadi, M. et al., January 2011.
  • Comprehensive Analysis of Important Questions Related to Incident Durations Based on Past Studies and Recent Empirical Data, Yazici, A. et al., TRB 89th Annual Meeting, January 2010.
Adjustment Method Based on Queuing Analysis Yes Yes Yes No No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Extensive Moderate One Moderate validation efforts Yes
  • Unknown
Moderate
  • Freeway Travel Time Forecasting Under Incident, Xia, J. et al., Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Issue 2178, 2010.
Difference-in-Travel-Time Method Yes Yes Yes No No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Moderate Moderate One Moderate validate efforts using a case study N/A; Statistical-based
  • Unknown
Moderate
  • Empirical Method for Estimating Traffic Incident Recovery Time, Zeng, X. et al., Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Issue 2178, 2010.
Marginal Incident Computation (MIC) Model Yes Yes Yes No No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Moderate Difficult One Unknown N/A; Statistical-based
  • Model is complicated
  • Should be refined to consider other causes of variable travel times, such as demand fluctuations and capacity fluctuations
Moderate
  • Stochastic Dynamic Network Loading for Travel Time Variability Due to Incidents, Corthout, R. et al., New Developments in Transport Planning: Advances in Dynamic Transport Assignment, 2010.
IDAS Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Moderate Moderate N/A Unknown Partly (Combined analytical model and empirical data)
  • Do not consider spatial characteristics of incident delay
Moderate
  • N/A
Genetic Neural Network (GNN) Yes Yes Yes No No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Moderate Difficult One Unknown N/A; Statistical-based
  • Difficult to understand the model parameters (blackbox)
Moderate
  • Prediction of Freeway Travel Time in Incident Management Evaluation Based on Genetic Neural Network, He, D. et al., Seventh International Conference on Traffic and Transportation Studies, 2010.
Cellular Automata Yes Yes Yes No No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Moderate Difficult Two Moderate validation efforts Yes
  • Computation resource intensive
  • May give poor results if input detector data is not accurate
Moderate
  • A Cellular Automata Approach to Estimate Incident-Related Travel Time on Interstate 66 in Near Real Time, Wang, Z. et al., Virginia Transportation Research Council, 2010.
  • Modeling Incident-Related Traffic and Estimating Travel Time with a Cellular Automaton Model, Murray-Tuite, P, Transportation Research Board 89th Annual Meeting, 2010.
Simulation Yes Yes Yes No No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Extensive Difficult Five Unknown N/A; Simulation-based
  • Resource intensive (data, cost, expertise, analysis time)
Good
  • Estimation of Non-recurring Post-incident Traffic Recovery Time for Different Flow Regimes: Comparing Shock Wave Theory and Simulation Modeling, Jeihani, M. et al., Transportation Research Board 90th Annual Meeting, 2011.
  • Estimation of Traffic Recovery Time for Different Flow Regimes on Freeways, Saka, A. et al., Maryland State Highway Administration, Report No. MD-09-SP708B4L, July 2008.
  • Use of simulation-based forecast for real time traffic management decision support: the case of the Madrid traffic centre, Torday, A. et al,. European Transport Conference, 2008.
  • On-line Microscopic Traffic Simulation to Support Real Time Traffic Management Strategies, Barcelo, J. et al.
  • Non-Recurrent Congestion Simulation And Application, Jiang, Z. et al., 15th World Congress on Intelligent Transport Systems and ITS America’s Annual Meeting, 2008.
  • Development of a Traffic Simulator for the Baltimore Beltway for Traffic Operations and Incident Management (MD-10-SP808B4M).
  • Management and Analysis of Michigan Intelligent Transportation Systems Center Data with Application to the Detroit Area I-75 Corridor, Grand Valley State University and Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan, Report No: MIOH UTC TS21p1-2 2011.
Predicting Incident Characteristics (e.g., Duration)
Regression Model Yes Yes Yes No No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Moderate Easy Three Moderate validation efforts N/A; Statistical-based
  • The explanatory power of the model may be poor
Moderate
  • A Comparative Study of Models for the Incident Duration Prediction, Valenti, G. et al., European Transport Research Review, 2010.
  • Are Incident Durations and Secondary Incidents Interdependent, Khattak, A. et al., Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board Issue Number: 2099, 2009.
  • Primary and Secondary Incident Management: Predicting Durations in Real Time, Khattak, A. et al, Final Report VCTIR 11-R11, Virginal Center for Transportation Innovation and Research, April 2011.
Log-Logistic (Accelerated Failure Time, or AFT) Model Yes Yes Yes No No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Moderate Moderate One Out-performed other naïve predictors N/A; Statistical-based
  • Unknown
Moderate
  • Incident Duration Prediction for In-vehicle Navigation System, Hu, J. et al., Transportation Research Board 90th Annual Meeting, 2011.
iMiT – Incident Management Integration Tool (On-line Tool Based on Statistical Regression) Yes Yes Yes (on-line) No No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes (Predict secondary incident occurrence) Yes Yes Yes Yes Moderate Easy One Empirically validated by comparing the model’s predicted incident durations in year 2007 against the observed incident durations N/A; Statistical-based
  • The model was based on Safety Service Patrol (SSP) data, but SSP did not respond to all incidents; therefore, the data used for the model may be biased
Good (Considering it was able to predict incident duration with root mean squared error (RMSE) within 16.4%
  • iMiT: A Tool for Dynamically Predicting Incident Durations, Secondary Incident Occurrence, and Incident Delays, Khattak, A. et al., TRB Annual Meeting, January 2011.
Shock Wave Model Yes Yes Yes No No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Moderate Moderate One N/A Yes
  • Unknown
Moderate
  • Stochastic Incident Duration: Impact on Delay, Knoop, V. et al., Transportation Research Board 89th Annual Meeting, 2010.
Hazard-Based Duration Regression Model Yes Yes Yes No No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Moderate Moderate One N/A N/A; Statistical-based
  • Unknown
Moderate
  • An Information-Based Time Sequential Approach to On-line Incident Duration Prediction, Qi, Y. et al., Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems Volume: December 2008.
Prediction/Decision Tree (DT) Yes Yes Yes No No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Moderate Moderate One Moderate validation efforts N/A; Statistical-based
  • Unknown
Moderate
  • A Comparative Study of Models for the Incident Duration Prediction, Valenti, G. et al., European Transport Research Review, 2010.
Rule-Based Tree Model (RBTM) Yes Yes Yes No No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Moderate Moderate One N/A N/A; Statistical-based
  • May need to use together with supplemental models for more accurate prediction
Moderate
  • Analysis of Freeway Incident Duration for ATIS Applications, Kim, W., S. Natarajan, and G. Chang, 15th World Congress on Intelligent Transport Systems and ITS America’s Annual Meeting, 2008.
  • An Integrated Knowledge Based System for Real-Time Estimation of Incident Durations and Nonrecurrent Congestion Delay for Freeway Networks (MD-09-SP708B4C).
Support/Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) Model Yes Yes Yes No No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Moderate Difficult One Moderate validation efforts N/A; Statistical-based
  • Tend to underestimate the prediction values for the long duration incident cases
Moderate
  • A Comparative Study of Models for the Incident Duration Prediction, Valenti, G. et al., European Transport Research Review, 2010.
Hybrid Model (Rule-Based Tree Model (RBTM), Multinomial Logit Model (MNL), and Naïve Bayesian Classifier (NBC)) Yes Yes Yes No No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Moderate Difficult One N/A N/A; Statistical-based
  • Model is complicated
Moderate
  • Development of a Hybrid Model for Freeway Incident Duration: A Case Study in Maryland, Kim, W. et al., 17th ITS World Congress, Busan, 2010.
K-Nearest-Neighbor (KNN) Yes Yes Yes No No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Moderate Difficult Two Moderate validation efforts N/A; Statistical-based
  • Tend to overestimate the prediction values for the short duration incident cases
Moderate
  • A Comparative Study of Models for the Incident Duration Prediction, Valenti, G. et al., European Transport Research Review, 2010.
  • Decision Support Tools to Support the Operations of Traffic Management Centers (TMC), Hadi, M. et al., January 2011.
Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Yes Yes Yes No No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Moderate Difficult One Moderate validation efforts N/A; Statistical-based
  • Tend to overestimate the prediction values for the short duration incident cases
Moderate
  • A Comparative Study of Models for the Incident Duration Prediction, Valenti, G. et al., European Transport Research Review, 2010.
Bayesian Network Yes Yes Yes No No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Moderate Moderate Two Unknown N/A; Statistical-based
  • It is site specific and hard to make generalization to other facilities
Good
  • Structure Learning for the Estimation of Non-Parametric Incident Duration Prediction, Demiroluk, S. et al., Transportation Research Board 90th Annual Meeting.
  • Traffic Incident Duration Prediction Based on the Bayesian Decision Tree Method, Yang, B. et al., The First International Symposium on Transportation and Development – Innovative Best Practices, 2008.
Quantifying Occurrence and Characteristics of Secondary Crashes
Regression Model No No No No No No No No Yes No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Moderate Moderate One The model was validated against 640 sample data set and the result showed that the methodology reduced Type I error by 24.38% and Type II by 3.13% N/A; Statistical-based
  • Unknown
Moderate
  • Dynamic Incident Progression Curve for Classifying Secondary Traffic Crashes, Journal of Transportation Engineering, December 2010.
Ordered Logit Model and Heckman Model Yes Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Moderate Moderate One N/A N/A; Statistical-based
  • Model has limited goodness of fit due to the complexity and randomness of secondary incident occurrence
Moderate
  • What Is the Role of Multiple Secondary Incidents in Traffic Operations, Zhang, H. et al., Journal of Transportation Engineering Volume: 136, 2010.
Simulation-Based Secondary Incident Filtering (SBSIF) Method Yes Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Moderate Difficult One Validated using 6-month data along a segment of I-287 in the New York State N/A; Simulation-based
  • Model needs to be recalibrated for use for other locations
  • Additional factors, such as weather, could be considered
Moderate
  • Simulation-Based Secondary Incident Filtering Method, Chou, C. et al., Journal of Transportation Engineering Volume: 136, 2010.
Probit Model Yes Yes Yes No No Yes No Yes Yes No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Moderate Moderate Two N/A N/A; Statistical-based
  • Model has limited goodness of fit due to the complexity and randomness of secondary incident occurrence
Moderate
  • Are Incident Durations and Secondary Incidents Interdependent, Khattak, A. et al., Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board Issue Number: 2099, 2009.
  • Primary and Secondary Incident Management: Predicting Durations in Real Time, Khattak, A. et al, Final Report VCTIR 11-R11, Virginal Center for Transportation Innovation and Research, April 2011.
Logistic Regression Model Yes Yes Yes No No Yes No Yes Yes No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Moderate Moderate Two Unknown N/A; Statistical-based
  • Unknown
Moderate
  • Identifying Secondary Crashes and Their Contributing Factors, Zhan, C. et al., Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board Issue Number: 2102, 2009
  • Decision Support Tools to Support the Operations of Traffic Management Centers (TMC), Hadi, M. et al., January 2011.
Bayesian Network Yes Yes Yes No No Yes No Yes Yes No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Moderate Moderate One Moderate validation efforts N/A; Statistical-based
  • Unknown
Moderate
  • Freeway Operations, Spatiotemporal-Incident Characteristics and Secondary-Crash Occurrence, Vlahogianni, E. et al., Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board Issue Number: 2178, 2010.

Notes

A: Development and evaluation of TIM plans.

B: Analysis and valuation of TIM strategies such as use of service patrols.

C: Decision support systems (on-line/off-line).

D: Incident prediction and detection.

E: Incident duration prediction.

F: TIM Performance Measures.

G: Relationship between TIM and overall congestion/travel time reliability.

H: Benefit-cost analysis of TIM programs/strategies.

I: Safety analysis applications such as secondary crash analysis.

J: Real-time ATIS.

K: Integrated Corridor Management.

L: Most appropriate uses of the method (e.g., long-range planning, corridor planning, deployment planning, benefit/cost analysis).