Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation for Traffic Incident Management Applications
Evaluation of TIM AMS Methods
This subsection provides a qualitative assessment of incident modeling methods based on selected criteria.
Qualitative Assessment Based on Selected Criteria (Review Matrix)
Table 2 shows a comprehensive assessment of incident modeling methods.
Table 2. TIM Review Matrix
Category |
Application |
Data Requirements |
Ease of Use |
Amount of Applications in Practice |
Validation Efforts |
Consistency with Traffic Flow Theory |
Known Shortcomings |
Qualitative Assessment of Validity of Results |
Document Used/Reference |
Development and Evaluation of TIM Plans |
Analysis and Valuation of TIM Strategies |
Decision Support Systems (On-line/Off-line) |
Incident Prediction and Detection |
Incident Duration Prediction |
TIM Performance Measures |
Relationship between TIM and Overall Congestion/Travel Time Reliability |
Benefit-Cost Analysis of TIM Programs/ Strategies |
Safety Analysis Applications |
Real-Time ATIS |
Integrated Corridor Management |
Appropriate for Long-Range Planning |
Appropriate for Corridor Planning |
Appropriate for Deployment Planning |
Appropriate for Benefit/Cost Analysis |
Measuring Impacts of Incidents on Traffic Flow |
Data Collection and Archiving (Incident and Travel Time Data) |
Roadway Sensors/Detectors |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Extensive |
Easy |
Many |
Unknown |
N/A |
- Detector health
- Spot measurement (not continuous)
|
Good for Empirical-Based Statistical Analysis |
- Decomposition of Travel Time Reliability into Various Sources: Incidents, Weather, Work Zones, Special Events, and Base Capacity, Kwon, J. et al., TRB Annual Meeting, January 2011.
- Freeway Travel Time Forecasting Under Incident, Xia, J. et al., Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Issue 2178, 2010.
- Decision Support Tools to Support the Operations of Traffic Management Centers (TMC), Hadi, M. et al., January 2011.
- Modeling Travel Time Variability on Urban Links in London, Hasan, S. et al., European Transport Conference, 2009.
- A Cellular Automata Approach to Estimate Incident-Related Travel Time on Interstate 66 in Near Real Time, Wang, Z. et al., Virginia Transportation Research Council, 2010.
- Modeling Incident-Related Traffic and Estimating Travel Time with a Cellular Automaton Model, Murray-Tuite, P, Transportation Research Board 89th Annual Meeting, 2010.
|
Freeway Service Patrol (FSP) |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Extensive |
Moderate |
Many |
Unknown |
N/A |
- Not all incidents are included as FSP does not respond to all incidents
|
Good for Empirical-Based Statistical Analysis |
- iMiT: A Tool for Dynamically Predicting Incident Durations, Secondary Incident Occurrence, and Incident Delays, Khattak, A. et al., TRB Annual Meeting, January 2011.
- Benefit-Cost Analysis of Freeway Service Patrol Programs: Methodology and Case Study, Chou, C. et al.
|
Accident Logs |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Extensive |
Moderate |
Many |
Unknown |
N/A |
- Not all incidents are included in accident logs and some of the records are not accurate
|
Good for Empirical-Based Statistical Analysis |
- Structure Learning for the Estimation of Non-Parametric Incident Duration Prediction, Demiroluk, S. et al., Transportation Research Board 90th Annual Meeting.
- Development of a Hybrid Model for Freeway Incident Duration: A Case Study in Maryland, Kim, W. et al., 17th ITS World Congress, Busan, 2010.
- Are Incident Durations and Secondary Incidents Interdependent, Khattak, A. et al., Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board Issue Number: 2099, 2009.
- Identifying Secondary Crashes and Their Contributing Factors, Zhan, C. et al., Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board Issue Number: 2102, 2009.
- Analysis of Freeway Incident Duration for ATIS Applications, Kim, W. et al., 15th World Congress on Intelligent Transport Systems and ITS America’s Annual Meeting, 2008.
- Dynamic Incident Progression Curve for Classifying Secondary Traffic Crashes, Journal of Transportation Engineering, December 2010.
|
TMC Data |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Extensive |
Moderate |
Many |
Unknown |
N/A |
- May contain incomplete information
|
Good for Empirical-Based Statistical Analysis |
- Incident Duration Prediction for In-Vehicle Navigation System, Hu, J. et al., Transportation Research Board 90th Annual Meeting, 2011.
- What Is the Role of Multiple Secondary Incidents in Traffic Operations, Zhang, H. et al., Journal of Transportation Engineering Volume: 136, 2010.
- Decision Support Tools to Support the Operations of Traffic Management Centers (TMC), Hadi, M. et al., January 2011.
|
Simulation |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Extensive |
Difficult |
Many |
Unknown |
N/A |
- Resource intensive (cost, expertise, analysis time)
|
Good if the simulation model is developed and calibrated well |
- Use of Simulation-Based Forecast for Real Time Traffic Management Decision Support: The Case of the Madrid Traffic Centre, Torday, A. et al., European Transport Conference, 2008.
- Measurement of Uncertainty Costs with Dynamic Traffic Simulations, Marchal, F. et al., Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2008.
- On-line Microscopic Traffic Simulation to Support Real Time Traffic Management Strategies, Barcelo, J. et al.
- Benefit-Cost Analysis of Freeway Service Patrol Programs: Methodology and Case Study, Chou, C. et al.
- Estimation of Nonrecurring Post-incident Traffic Recovery Time for Different Flow Regimes: Comparing Shock Wave Theory and Simulation Modeling, Jeihani, M. et al., Transportation Research Board 90th Annual Meeting, 2011.
- Regional Emergency Action Coordination Team (REACT) Evaluation, by Battelle, July 2002.
|
Automatic Number Plate Reader (ANPR) |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Extensive |
Difficult |
Rare |
Unknown |
N/A |
- Resource intensive (cost and analysis time)
|
Good for Empirical-Based Statistical Analysis |
- Modeling Travel Time Variability on Urban Links in London, Hasan, S. et al., European Transport Conference, 2009.
|
Web-based Data Collection and Archiving System |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Extensive |
Easy |
Some |
Unknown |
N/A |
|
Good if the quality of data feeding into the system is good |
- Freeway and Arterial System of Transportation (FAST) Dashboard (Regional Transportation Commission (RTC) of Southern Nevada).
|
Analytical Methods |
Coordinated Highways Action Response Team (CHART, University of Maryland, Model-Based Stochastic Approach) |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
No |
No |
Yes |
No |
No |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Minimal |
Easy |
One |
Unknown |
N/A; Statistical-based |
- Only includes a volume term – should include a V/C term instead
|
Will overestimate delay at low volumes |
- Performance Evaluation and Benefit Analysis for CHART in Year 2009, Chang, G. et al.
|
Quantile Regression (Empirical-Based Statistical Method) |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Extensive |
Easy |
One |
Unknown |
N/A; Statistical-based |
- It is site specific and hard to make generalization to other facilities
|
Results are valid as long as data input is reasonably accurate |
- Decomposition of Travel Time Reliability into Various Sources: Incidents, Weather, Work Zones, Special Events, and Base Capacity, Kwon, J. et al., TRB Annual Meeting, January 2011.
|
Simulation |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Extensive |
Difficult |
One |
Unknown |
N/A; Simulation-based |
|
Moderate |
- Measurement of Uncertainty Costs with Dynamic Traffic Simulations, Marchal, F. et al., Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2008.
- On-line Microscopic Traffic Simulation to Support Real Time Traffic Management Strategies, Barcelo, J. et al.
- Regional Emergency Action Coordination Team (REACT) Evaluation, by Battelle, July 2002.
- Estimation of Incident Delays on Arterial Streets, Yang, S. et al., Transportation Research Board 87th Annual Meeting, 2008.
|
Predicting Impacts of Incidents on Traffic Flow |
Regression Model |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Extensive |
Easy |
Two |
Unknown |
N/A; Statistical-based |
|
Good |
- Estimation of Nonrecurring Postincident Traffic Recovery Time for Different Flow Regimes: Comparing Shock Wave Theory and Simulation Modeling, Jeihani, M. et al., Transportation Research Board 90th Annual Meeting, 2011.
- Estimation of Incident Delays on Arterial Streets, Yang, S. et al., Transportation Research Board 87thAnnual Meeting, 2008.
|
Shock Wave Model |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Moderate |
Moderate |
One |
Unknown |
Yes |
- Tend to report shorter recovery time as it only calculates queue dissipation time which does not necessarily equate with the time to return to pre-incident normal traffic flow condition
|
Moderate |
- Estimation of Nonrecurring Postincident Traffic Recovery Time for Different Flow Regimes: Comparing Shock Wave Theory and Simulation Modeling, Jeihani, M. et al., Transportation Research Board 90th Annual Meeting, 2011.
|
Queuing Analysis |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Moderate |
Easy |
Three |
Moderate validation efforts |
Yes |
|
Moderate |
- Primary and Secondary Incident Management: Predicting Durations in Real Time, Khattak, A. et al., Final Report VCTIR 11-R11, Virginal Center for Transportation Innovation and Research, April 2011.
- Decision Support Tools to Support the Operations of Traffic Management Centers (TMC), Hadi, M. et al., January 2011.
- Comprehensive Analysis of Important Questions Related to Incident Durations Based on Past Studies and Recent Empirical Data, Yazici, A. et al., TRB 89th Annual Meeting, January 2010.
|
Adjustment Method Based on Queuing Analysis |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Extensive |
Moderate |
One |
Moderate validation efforts |
Yes |
|
Moderate |
- Freeway Travel Time Forecasting Under Incident, Xia, J. et al., Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Issue 2178, 2010.
|
Difference-in-Travel-Time Method |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Moderate |
Moderate |
One |
Moderate validate efforts using a case study |
N/A; Statistical-based |
|
Moderate |
- Empirical Method for Estimating Traffic Incident Recovery Time, Zeng, X. et al., Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Issue 2178, 2010.
|
Marginal Incident Computation (MIC) Model |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Moderate |
Difficult |
One |
Unknown |
N/A; Statistical-based |
- Model is complicated
- Should be refined to consider other causes of variable travel times, such as demand fluctuations and capacity fluctuations
|
Moderate |
- Stochastic Dynamic Network Loading for Travel Time Variability Due to Incidents, Corthout, R. et al., New Developments in Transport Planning: Advances in Dynamic Transport Assignment, 2010.
|
IDAS |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Moderate |
Moderate |
N/A |
Unknown |
Partly (Combined analytical model and empirical data) |
- Do not consider spatial characteristics of incident delay
|
Moderate |
|
Genetic Neural Network (GNN) |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Moderate |
Difficult |
One |
Unknown |
N/A; Statistical-based |
- Difficult to understand the model parameters (blackbox)
|
Moderate |
- Prediction of Freeway Travel Time in Incident Management Evaluation Based on Genetic Neural Network, He, D. et al., Seventh International Conference on Traffic and Transportation Studies, 2010.
|
Cellular Automata |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Moderate |
Difficult |
Two |
Moderate validation efforts |
Yes |
- Computation resource intensive
- May give poor results if input detector data is not accurate
|
Moderate |
- A Cellular Automata Approach to Estimate Incident-Related Travel Time on Interstate 66 in Near Real Time, Wang, Z. et al., Virginia Transportation Research Council, 2010.
- Modeling Incident-Related Traffic and Estimating Travel Time with a Cellular Automaton Model, Murray-Tuite, P, Transportation Research Board 89th Annual Meeting, 2010.
|
Simulation |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Extensive |
Difficult |
Five |
Unknown |
N/A; Simulation-based |
- Resource intensive (data, cost, expertise, analysis time)
|
Good |
- Estimation of Non-recurring Post-incident Traffic Recovery Time for Different Flow Regimes: Comparing Shock Wave Theory and Simulation Modeling, Jeihani, M. et al., Transportation Research Board 90th Annual Meeting, 2011.
- Estimation of Traffic Recovery Time for Different Flow Regimes on Freeways, Saka, A. et al., Maryland State Highway Administration, Report No. MD-09-SP708B4L, July 2008.
- Use of simulation-based forecast for real time traffic management decision support: the case of the Madrid traffic centre, Torday, A. et al,. European Transport Conference, 2008.
- On-line Microscopic Traffic Simulation to Support Real Time Traffic Management Strategies, Barcelo, J. et al.
- Non-Recurrent Congestion Simulation And Application, Jiang, Z. et al., 15th World Congress on Intelligent Transport Systems and ITS America’s Annual Meeting, 2008.
- Development of a Traffic Simulator for the Baltimore Beltway for Traffic Operations and Incident Management (MD-10-SP808B4M).
- Management and Analysis of Michigan Intelligent Transportation Systems Center Data with Application to the Detroit Area I-75 Corridor, Grand Valley State University and Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan, Report No: MIOH UTC TS21p1-2 2011.
|
Predicting Incident Characteristics (e.g., Duration) |
Regression Model |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Moderate |
Easy |
Three |
Moderate validation efforts |
N/A; Statistical-based |
- The explanatory power of the model may be poor
|
Moderate |
- A Comparative Study of Models for the Incident Duration Prediction, Valenti, G. et al., European Transport Research Review, 2010.
- Are Incident Durations and Secondary Incidents Interdependent, Khattak, A. et al., Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board Issue Number: 2099, 2009.
- Primary and Secondary Incident Management: Predicting Durations in Real Time, Khattak, A. et al, Final Report VCTIR 11-R11, Virginal Center for Transportation Innovation and Research, April 2011.
|
Log-Logistic (Accelerated Failure Time, or AFT) Model |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Moderate |
Moderate |
One |
Out-performed other naïve predictors |
N/A; Statistical-based |
|
Moderate |
- Incident Duration Prediction for In-vehicle Navigation System, Hu, J. et al., Transportation Research Board 90th Annual Meeting, 2011.
|
iMiT – Incident Management Integration Tool (On-line Tool Based on Statistical Regression) |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes (on-line) |
No |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes (Predict secondary incident occurrence) |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Moderate |
Easy |
One |
Empirically validated by comparing the model’s predicted incident durations in year 2007 against the observed incident durations |
N/A; Statistical-based |
- The model was based on Safety Service Patrol (SSP) data, but SSP did not respond to all incidents; therefore, the data used for the model may be biased
|
Good (Considering it was able to predict incident duration with root mean squared error (RMSE) within 16.4% |
- iMiT: A Tool for Dynamically Predicting Incident Durations, Secondary Incident Occurrence, and Incident Delays, Khattak, A. et al., TRB Annual Meeting, January 2011.
|
Shock Wave Model |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Moderate |
Moderate |
One |
N/A |
Yes |
|
Moderate |
- Stochastic Incident Duration: Impact on Delay, Knoop, V. et al., Transportation Research Board 89th Annual Meeting, 2010.
|
Hazard-Based Duration Regression Model |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Moderate |
Moderate |
One |
N/A |
N/A; Statistical-based |
|
Moderate |
- An Information-Based Time Sequential Approach to On-line Incident Duration Prediction, Qi, Y. et al., Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems Volume: December 2008.
|
Prediction/Decision Tree (DT) |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Moderate |
Moderate |
One |
Moderate validation efforts |
N/A; Statistical-based |
|
Moderate |
- A Comparative Study of Models for the Incident Duration Prediction, Valenti, G. et al., European Transport Research Review, 2010.
|
Rule-Based Tree Model (RBTM) |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Moderate |
Moderate |
One |
N/A |
N/A; Statistical-based |
- May need to use together with supplemental models for more accurate prediction
|
Moderate |
- Analysis of Freeway Incident Duration for ATIS Applications, Kim, W., S. Natarajan, and G. Chang, 15th World Congress on Intelligent Transport Systems and ITS America’s Annual Meeting, 2008.
- An Integrated Knowledge Based System for Real-Time Estimation of Incident Durations and Nonrecurrent Congestion Delay for Freeway Networks (MD-09-SP708B4C).
|
Support/Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) Model |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Moderate |
Difficult |
One |
Moderate validation efforts |
N/A; Statistical-based |
- Tend to underestimate the prediction values for the long duration incident cases
|
Moderate |
- A Comparative Study of Models for the Incident Duration Prediction, Valenti, G. et al., European Transport Research Review, 2010.
|
Hybrid Model (Rule-Based Tree Model (RBTM), Multinomial Logit Model (MNL), and Naïve Bayesian Classifier (NBC)) |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Moderate |
Difficult |
One |
N/A |
N/A; Statistical-based |
|
Moderate |
- Development of a Hybrid Model for Freeway Incident Duration: A Case Study in Maryland, Kim, W. et al., 17th ITS World Congress, Busan, 2010.
|
K-Nearest-Neighbor (KNN) |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Moderate |
Difficult |
Two |
Moderate validation efforts |
N/A; Statistical-based |
- Tend to overestimate the prediction values for the short duration incident cases
|
Moderate |
- A Comparative Study of Models for the Incident Duration Prediction, Valenti, G. et al., European Transport Research Review, 2010.
- Decision Support Tools to Support the Operations of Traffic Management Centers (TMC), Hadi, M. et al., January 2011.
|
Artificial Neural Network (ANN) |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Moderate |
Difficult |
One |
Moderate validation efforts |
N/A; Statistical-based |
- Tend to overestimate the prediction values for the short duration incident cases
|
Moderate |
- A Comparative Study of Models for the Incident Duration Prediction, Valenti, G. et al., European Transport Research Review, 2010.
|
Bayesian Network |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Two |
Unknown |
N/A; Statistical-based |
- It is site specific and hard to make generalization to other facilities
|
Good |
- Structure Learning for the Estimation of Non-Parametric Incident Duration Prediction, Demiroluk, S. et al., Transportation Research Board 90th Annual Meeting.
- Traffic Incident Duration Prediction Based on the Bayesian Decision Tree Method, Yang, B. et al., The First International Symposium on Transportation and Development – Innovative Best Practices, 2008.
|
Quantifying Occurrence and Characteristics of Secondary Crashes |
Regression Model |
No |
No |
No |
No |
No |
No |
No |
No |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Moderate |
Moderate |
One |
The model was validated against 640 sample data set and the result showed that the methodology reduced Type I error by 24.38% and Type II by 3.13% |
N/A; Statistical-based |
|
Moderate |
- Dynamic Incident Progression Curve for Classifying Secondary Traffic Crashes, Journal of Transportation Engineering, December 2010.
|
Ordered Logit Model and Heckman Model |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
No |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Moderate |
Moderate |
One |
N/A |
N/A; Statistical-based |
- Model has limited goodness of fit due to the complexity and randomness of secondary incident occurrence
|
Moderate |
- What Is the Role of Multiple Secondary Incidents in Traffic Operations, Zhang, H. et al., Journal of Transportation Engineering Volume: 136, 2010.
|
Simulation-Based Secondary Incident Filtering (SBSIF) Method |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
No |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Moderate |
Difficult |
One |
Validated using 6-month data along a segment of I-287 in the New York State |
N/A; Simulation-based |
- Model needs to be recalibrated for use for other locations
- Additional factors, such as weather, could be considered
|
Moderate |
- Simulation-Based Secondary Incident Filtering Method, Chou, C. et al., Journal of Transportation Engineering Volume: 136, 2010.
|
Probit Model |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Two |
N/A |
N/A; Statistical-based |
- Model has limited goodness of fit due to the complexity and randomness of secondary incident occurrence
|
Moderate |
- Are Incident Durations and Secondary Incidents Interdependent, Khattak, A. et al., Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board Issue Number: 2099, 2009.
- Primary and Secondary Incident Management: Predicting Durations in Real Time, Khattak, A. et al, Final Report VCTIR 11-R11, Virginal Center for Transportation Innovation and Research, April 2011.
|
Logistic Regression Model |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Two |
Unknown |
N/A; Statistical-based |
|
Moderate |
- Identifying Secondary Crashes and Their Contributing Factors, Zhan, C. et al., Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board Issue Number: 2102, 2009
- Decision Support Tools to Support the Operations of Traffic Management Centers (TMC), Hadi, M. et al., January 2011.
|
Bayesian Network |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Moderate |
Moderate |
One |
Moderate validation efforts |
N/A; Statistical-based |
|
Moderate |
- Freeway Operations, Spatiotemporal-Incident Characteristics and Secondary-Crash Occurrence, Vlahogianni, E. et al., Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board Issue Number: 2178, 2010.
|
Notes
A: Development and evaluation of TIM plans.
B: Analysis and valuation of TIM strategies such as use of service patrols.
C: Decision support systems (on-line/off-line).
D: Incident prediction and detection.
E: Incident duration prediction.
F: TIM Performance Measures.
G: Relationship between TIM and overall congestion/travel time reliability.
H: Benefit-cost analysis of TIM programs/strategies.
I: Safety analysis applications such as secondary crash analysis.
J: Real-time ATIS.
K: Integrated Corridor Management.
L: Most appropriate uses of the method (e.g., long-range planning, corridor planning, deployment planning, benefit/cost analysis).
|