Climate Change Adaptation Guide for Transportation Systems Management, Operations, and Maintenance

III. Steps to Adapt Transportation System Management and Operations and Maintenance Programs to Climate Change

A. How Transportation System Management and Operations and Maintenance Work Together on Climate Change

Over the past 10 years, State and local agencies have implemented various TSMO and maintenance strategies to mitigate the impacts of adverse weather on the transportation system. The strategies run the gamut from plowing and sanding to coordinated traffic control strategies and regional traveler information. Agencies respond to weather events through a multi-pronged approach that involves a combination of operational, maintenance, and, at times, emergency management strategies. Typical strategies used today include motorist alerts, advisories, warnings (which include roadside active warning systems and pre-trip traveler information systems), speed restrictions (variable speed limits, for example), vehicle restrictions (truck restrictions during high winds), route restrictions (road closures), anti-icing/deicing road surface treatments, plowing, and traffic signal management (weather responsive traffic management). In addition, traffic incident and emergency management practices provide agencies with the ability to marshal resources effectively to address adverse weather. Most of these approaches require multi-agency and multi-disciplinary capabilities to be brought together efficiently before, during, and after the extreme weather event. Traffic incident and emergency management collectively fall under the area of emergency transportation operations (ETO), which involves collaboration and coordination between transportation, public safety (fire, rescue, emergency medical service [EMS]), law enforcement) and emergency management communities.

The roles and responsibilities of TSMO, maintenance, and emergency response managers and staff are connected and often interdependent in addressing the impacts of extreme weather and climate change on the transportation system. Each functional group has a unique set of decisions falling across the six areas of the CMF (described in section II) that may need to be examined in adapting to climate change. For example, the managers of maintenance programs will be concerned with decisions involving pavement rehabilitation needs and methods, bridge maintenance needs and methods, construction and maintenance work timelines and timeframes, and vegetation control. TSMO program managers will need to revisit other decisions such as the types of monitoring equipment and sources, communication needs, and siting criteria necessary to obtain real-time operational information on the transportation system and push information out to travelers. Emergency management leaders, in coordination with operations divisions, will look at adapting operating procedures and resource levels to prepare for hurricane evacuations or other weather-related emergencies. As is evident, TSMO functions rely on well-maintained infrastructure, and successful emergency management depends on reliable and strategically deployed TSMO infrastructure (e.g., traffic signals, contra-flow lanes, variable message signs (VMS), cameras, road weather information stations), TSMO staff, and fine-tuned operating procedures that can be leveraged during emergencies. The same holds true for maintenance, its infrastructure, and the linkage between maintenance and emergency management.

The link between transportation operations and emergency management varies depending on the scale of the event. During major, catastrophic events emergency management agencies have control of the response and transportation operations. During less extreme events, the DOTs maintain control over the highways and major arterials. This difference will be important to consider when DOTs plan actions to address climate change risks in the short and long term. Figure 4 illustrates that as the level of severity of the incident increases, the number of agencies involved grows beyond the DOT to include public safety and emergency management agencies. The increase in severity also indicates that a greater level of collaboration and communication between agencies and functions is required.

B. Overview of an Operations Adaptation Framework

FHWA has developed and tested a Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Framework (“the Framework”) (see Figure 5) which consists of a report¹³ and an online virtual framework (see Figure 6),¹⁴ which serve both as a guide and a collection of resources for use by transportation professionals when analyzing the impacts of climate change and extreme weather on transportation infrastructure. Its purpose is to identify key considerations, questions, and resources that can be used to design and implement a climate change vulnerability assessment. To date, the Framework has been tested by 24 pilots and has undergone a series of refinements as a result of the real-world findings. The pilots have also contributed to the plentiful body of lessons learned and example resources that are linked to the virtual version of the Framework.

The Framework, originally developed with an infrastructure planning and design focus, provides the organizing principle for understanding adaptation needs from an operations and maintenance perspective as well.

Consistent with the Framework the primary components of this guide include:

• Define objectives and scope.
• Assess vulnerability.
• Integrate climate change considerations into decision making.
• Monitor, revisit, and develop new objectives.

While the emphasis of this guide is on concrete actions DOTs can take to integrate climate change into decision making, it is critical to also define the scope of adaptation efforts and assess vulnerabilities to inform the development of adaptation strategies. Figure 7 illustrates how TSMO and maintenance groups can use the Framework to identify and implement appropriate strategies for their unique conditions and locations.

C. Define Scope

It is important to articulate the objectives of the adaptation effort up front and identify the anticipated changes in climate that are most relevant to your agency. Together, these steps frame the scope of the planning effort and drive the details required; they help minimize data collection and analysis activities that would ultimately be extraneous to the desired objectives.

1. Articulate Program Goals and Operations Objectives

TSMO and maintenance offices within agencies have long been driven by goals and objectives largely around safety, levels of service, and reliability. DOTs need to adapt to climate change to ensure they can continue to meet program goals.

Program goals and operations objectives may require some updates when anticipated climate changes are taken into account. These updates may be only subtle shifts in agency focus, but should aim to define what must be achieved to ensure resilient operations. Agencies should consider what levels of performance are expected during adverse weather (which may become more frequent or intense under a changing climate) and what levels of disruption are tolerable. Demand-oriented goals and objectives (e.g., the role of the agency in serving the surge in demand that may be expected) need to be defined as well as the expectations for restoration of services and travel.

Agencies should also develop more specific, outcome-based operations objectives for the program goals. These operations objectives should be refined and tied to specific performance measures when working through sections IV.D. Assess Vulnerability and IV.E Integrate into Decision Making (and once the user has a better understanding of realistic expectations that take into account future changes in climate).

2. Identify Key Climate Variables

Changes in climate and extreme weather events will not be uniform throughout the world or even throughout the United States. It is important to identify the climate stressors or extreme weather events (e.g., increase in extreme heat, more frequent heavy precipitation, increased precipitation variability, drought, flooding, sea level rise, higher storm surges, increase in wildfire probability) that: (1) could occur locally; and (2) could affect local TSMO and maintenance programs. Examples of the geographic diversity of climate impacts can be seen in Figure 8. A complete set of resources for identifying local climate changes is available as part of Module 2 of FHWA's Virtual Framework for Vulnerability Assessment.¹⁶ Once the regional climate stressors of concern have been identified, Section D.3 explains how to refine DOTs understanding of the scale and impacts of those climate stressors on TSMO and maintenance.

3. Develop Information on Sensitivity to Climate

As discussed below in Section D.2 Information on the past climate and the resultant impacts is useful for understanding the kinds of weather and climate effects to which assets and operations are sensitive and can help to identify thresholds beyond which future climate effects may affect those assets.

It is also important to look forward and identify decisions that may be climate sensitive in the future and which decisions (e.g., standard operating practices, budget allocations) may be based on historical climate trends that no longer accurately reflect more recent trends (that have shifted due to climate change).

The following is a proposed definition for climate-sensitive decisions:

Decisions are climate-sensitive if their continued effectiveness could be compromised by projected changes in climatic conditions (e.g., changes in temperature, precipitation, weather patterns, and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events).

TSMO and maintenance decisions that DOTs make on a daily basis are rarely climate-sensitive, because the implications of those decisions are typically so short-lived that there is not enough time for them to be compromised by the effects of climate change. Transportation agencies make numerous short-term and long-term decisions about their TSMO and maintenance programs, however. Potential changes in extreme weather events or climate variability are relevant to many of these decisions, especially the decisions agencies make infrequently.

An early step in identifying how DOTs can adapt their TSMO and maintenance programs is to identify possible entry points—existing decisions that could incorporate climate change considerations in the future. For example, knowing that there could be more frequent flooding events could change an agency’s decision about what workforce capabilities are required for the season. Table 1 provides an example of potential TSMO and maintenance decisions which may be influenced by climate change and extreme weather. Additional examples and related information are provided in Appendix A – Matrix of Climate-Sensitive Decisions. For each decision, the appendix includes a description, how climate stressors affect the decision, and which climate stressors affect the decision.

Table 1. Example of Climate-Sensitive Decisions

Climate-Sensitive Decision Areas	Specific Decisions	Description
1. Planning for future workforce needs.	Determine the right level of workforce requirements and capabilities.	Operating agencies make a variety of workforce-related decisions, including the number of staff required, their locations, and capabilities necessary to monitor, control, report, and maintain the roadway system.
2. Planning for operations and maintenance investments.	Determine criteria to prioritize operational resource investments (including capital improvements).	Resource investments may include new capital improvements for operations and maintenance such as control systems, field equipment, vehicles, communications, and power. They may also include investments for annual maintenance.
3. Budgeting for operations and maintenance.	Determine the appropriate funding needs and levels on annual and multi-year basis.	Operating agencies typically are funded on an annual basis. Funding levels greatly drive the overall program capabilities and functions.
4. Establishing realistic objectives.	Set regional operations objectives for the program.	Effective planning for operations requires a clear articulation of regional operations objectives. These objectives define the response strategies and the performance-based management required.
Note: Excerpted from Appendix A – Matrix of Climate-Sensitive Decisions

While day-to-day management of traffic operations might not be particularly sensitive to broader changes in climate, the planning required to support agile TSMO and maintenance programs may involve more climate-sensitive decisions. For example, future workforce equipment needs, facility siting, material procurement, technology deployments, business processes, and institutional arrangements typically span multiple seasons and even years. The effectiveness of such decisions made today may be compromised by changes in climate.

The following list of questions can help agencies determine if a decision is climate-sensitive:

• Do climate variables have a direct effect on the decision outcomes? For example, will increases in precipitation overwhelm current maintenance practices?
• Can climate variables affect the underlying assumptions upon which the decision is founded? For example, will changes in the climate, such as precipitation, affect traffic levels, which in turn impact roadway operations and management?
• Is climate likely to change during the time period governed by the decision? Consider long-term, chronic changes in climate as well as the increased frequency of acute weather events.
  • What is the time horizon for planning and implementation?
  • How frequently is the decision made?
• Is this a single decision moment or a multiple decision moment (i.e., is the decision made once and then executed or is there room for refinement and adjustment over the course of implementation/operations)? Includes:
  • Financial reversibility (i.e., does the practice represent a cost that cannot be recovered?)
  • Foreclosure of other options (i.e., does implementing this practice limit the availability of other practices in the future?).

In addition, think about whether there are any specific weather thresholds at which the decisions become sensitive. Linking TSMO and maintenance practices to weather thresholds is a needed step in this process. To date, these rules have been ad-hoc and not formalized. In the past, experienced supervisors knew what activities could be scheduled based on weather conditions like precipitation, wind speeds, visibility, and temperature. There are no standard weather-related practices for maintenance or operations actions. When there are specific thresholds for weather conditions (e.g., staff cannot work without frequent breaks when temperatures are above X°F), projections on how those specific variables may change in the future can help inform planning.

Additional information on possible impacts of climate change on transportation systems (including infrastructure and operations) can be found in TRB Special Report 290, NCHRP Report 750, among others. This and other resources are available at the FHWA Virtual Adaptation Framework Climate Change Adaptation Case Studies and Resources.¹⁸

D. Assess Vulnerability

The level of vulnerability assessment needed – high-level or detailed, qualitative or quantitative, statewide or localized, agency-wide or by departments – will vary based on the types of decisions required. Regardless of the exact process used, the following are key elements of a vulnerability assessment.

1. Document Existing Capabilities

It is important to take a look at current or baseline capabilities (assessing both technical as well as institutional capability to respond to climate and extreme weather) before seeking to determine improvements in those capabilities (discussed in Section III.E.4). The CMF provides a useful framework for assessing and documenting existing institutional capabilities (and will be discussed again later in the context of determining improvement in capabilities necessary for successful implementation of adaptation measures). The framework defines capability in terms of six areas that together inform the agency's overall ability to respond to changing conditions: business processes, systems and technology, performance management, culture, organization and workforce, and collaboration. Documenting current capabilities and identifying where those capabilities fall on the spectrum of ad-hoc implementation to planning for optimized practices will help an agency gain a better sense of how resilient they may already be to climate change and extreme weather events.

2. Collect and Integrate Data on Past Performance

Examining previous vulnerabilities can be an excellent starting point for thinking about future vulnerabilities. Common climate change-related TSMO and maintenance program vulnerabilities include:

• Loss of roadway capacity.
• Loss of alternative routes.
• Loss of situational awareness (due to power/communication).
• Inability to evacuate/shelter-in-place.
• Loss of service life (due to faster deterioration, etc.).
• Increased safety risk.
• Loss of economic productivity.
• Reduced mobility.

Internal records or other data on how the system has fared during previous extreme weather events can provide a rich source of insights into potential future vulnerabilities. Any of the following could be a source of information about system vulnerabilities:

• Traffic incident reports – Check whether there were any incidents during specific recent extreme weather events that correspond to the climate stressors under evaluation (e.g., heat waves, heavy rain events, tropical storms).
• Maintenance records – Check maintenance records for the time surrounding specific recent weather events.
• After-action reports – These reports, compiled after extreme weather events, describe what happened, why, and areas for improvement. Mine these reports for information about vulnerabilities for applicable weather events.
• Emergency reimbursement forms – For declared disasters relevant to the climate stressors under evaluation, review Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA) or other emergency reimbursement requests to identify the magnitude and scope of damages during past events.
• Staff interviews across departments – On-the-ground staff at DOTs often have deep institutional knowledge about existing vulnerabilities that may not be well-documented. Asking staff "What keeps you up at night?" can help facilitate discussion about key system vulnerabilities.¹⁹

If possible, build a dataset to correlate past extreme weather disruptions—gathered from the above sources—with information on the weather conditions associated with the event.

Local National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Offices (there are 122 nationwide) house "Weather Event Archives" that can be very useful sources of information on past extreme events.²⁰ It is also important to share collected information across offices or departments.

3. Develop Climate Inputs

In addition to gathering information on past weather disruptions and identifying key TSMO and maintenance weather sensitivities, another important component of a climate change vulnerability assessment is collecting data, qualitative or quantitative, on how climate stressors are projected to change locally. The focus should be on identifying how specific weather thresholds identified as currently affecting TSMO and maintenance activities may change in the future.

Several sources exist to provide information on potential future climate changes, a selection of which are highlighted in the following text box. See Module 4 of the FHWA Framework²¹ for additional guidance on gathering climate inputs.

In addition to collecting information on climate projections, many transportation agencies have found it helpful to collect information on historical weather conditions in order to provide context for the projections. Examine RWIS data to help establish the climate record for the area. All properly sited and maintained weather stations can be a vital part of the climate record, especially if they have been maintained for longer than 30 years. If RWIS data is not available, data can be obtained from the local weather station(s) through the National Weather Service.

4. Characterize Impacts and Risks

Synthesize information on potential climate changes, past impacts, and known sensitivities to characterize possible impacts of climate change on TSMO and maintenance programs.

Determine Outputs

Think about how results will be used to determine what level of information is needed to inform decisions. Options include:

• Qualitative vulnerability ratings of individual decisions, functions, components, or locations (the level of detail decided at the outset) – e.g., High, Medium, Low vulnerabilities. In this approach, consider vulnerability as a function of three components:²²
  • Exposure – The nature and degree to which a system or asset is exposed to significant climate variations (i.e., whether and how climate stressors will change).
  • Sensitivity – Degree to which an asset or system is affected by exposure (i.e., if all assets were equally exposed, which would experience the greatest damage?).
  • Adaptive Capacity – Ability of a system to adjust, repair, and respond to damage or disruption. Adaptive capacity may not be applicable or ratable in many cases, so it may be excluded from vulnerability assessments. Figure 10 provides an example of a rapid qualitative assessment of the vulnerability of a pavement maintenance program to increasing temperatures. It assumes that no information is readily available on adaptive capacity for this rapid assessment (i.e., that more information might need to be gathered to assess that component if a more detailed assessment is determined to be useful).

Figure 10 provides an example of a rapid qualitative assessment of the vulnerability of a pavement maintenance program to increasing temperatures. It assumes that no information is readily available on adaptive capacity for this rapid assessment (i.e., that more information might need to be gathered to assess that component if a more detailed assessment is determined to be useful).

• Quantitative vulnerability ratings – Use a quantitative approach to assign vulnerability ratings based on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. For example, define and quantify sensitivity in terms of potential impact (e.g., costs, delays, disruptions).
• Qualitative risk ratings – Identify "risks" rather than "vulnerabilities." The concepts are similar, but risk is different in that it incorporates likelihood of potential impact.
  • Risk is traditionally defined as the product of likelihood and consequence. Likelihood is parallel to the exposure component of vulnerability, and consequence is parallel to sensitivity.
  • Likelihood of potential impacts can be very difficult to evaluate, given the uncertainties inherent in climate projections. However, some agencies are more familiar with the concept of "risk" than vulnerabilities, so choose to present risk ratings.
• Quantitative risk ratings – Use a quantitative approach to calculate risk of impacts

Determine Approach

Regardless of the intended outputs, there are three primary options for how to determine those outputs.

• Data-driven, desktop analysis – Compile and assess data on climate projections and past impacts of weather events to determine future impacts of climate change.
• Workshop-based, stakeholder-driven analysis – Engage staff and other stakeholders to qualitatively assess vulnerabilities or risks. For example, ask staff to identify the locations most susceptible to flooding, or the hypothetical consequences of different climate scenarios.
• Hybrid approach – Complete a desktop analysis with available data, and "ground truth" the results with stakeholders through workshops, one-on-one interviews, or other mechanisms to get their feedback.

See the "Getting Started" boxes below for checklists to follow, along with tools and materials to evaluate climate change vulnerabilities or risks.

E. Integrate into Decision Making

1. Identify Performance Measures

Performance measurement can help to measure qualitative and quantitative progress towards meeting the objectives of TSMO and maintenance programs. Performance measures can also help decision makers in determining how to spend their limited budgets by focusing expenditures towards specific operational issues in order to help them improve their performance metric scoring. Many DOTs have adopted or are in the process of developing performance measures.²³ If a DOT desires to become more resilient to the impacts of climate change, it is important to integrate that desire into performance measures to ensure that progress toward that goal is tracked over time. The concept of climate change adaptation and resiliency can either be integrated into existing performance measures or adopted as a stand-alone measure. Good measures are defined in part by their ability to be measurable, understandable, and meaningful.²⁴

DOTs should consider whether revisions to existing performance measures are necessary to accommodate climate change. When setting or revising performance measures, it is important to work with local communities to establish a tolerance level for disruption (i.e., the acceptable level of operational performance if threat occurs) given the changes that are projected to occur due to climate change. It will be critical to explain that in some ways TSMO objectives may become easier while in other ways it may become harder (e.g. increased frequency and intensity of storm events). By using a scenario planning process, it can be demonstrated that in some instances, it will be harder to maintain historic levels of service (LOS) with more intense/frequent events and therefore the performance measures may need to be revised to reflect the changing reality. During this outreach process, it will also be valuable to discuss the public's mounting expectations for faster responses and constant access to a highly operational roadway system in order to emphasize the need to reach a common understanding of reasonable levels of service during extreme weather events.

2. Identify Potential Adaptation Measures25

Adaptation strategies should be developed to address known vulnerabilities directly—either those already experienced or those identified through a vulnerability assessment. By mapping the strategies to the vulnerabilities, there is a direct link from problem to solution. Additionally, the strategies should be developed to help achieve new or existing performance metrics.

Frequently, adaptation strategies can be identified by looking to best practices in other states or regions that already experience more severe weather events. While the South may not be used to responding to ice storms, their counterparts in the North can provide guidance on how to prepare for, respond to, and recover from this type of event. This "climate shifting" is also true for extreme heat waves, flooding, landslides, wildfires, and other climate stressors. To develop strategies, review examples and best practices from other agencies and engage a diverse range of staff within the organization. The staff with longer tenures frequently knows the issues that arise during extreme weather events and can identify solutions to the problems.

It is important to consider a diverse range of adaptation strategies to ensure that possible solutions, easy and difficult, are considered. Strategies for TSMO and maintenance should include the following types:

• Policy-based changes – including guidance on incorporating climate change adaptation in TSMO and maintenance programs.
• Built infrastructure measures – including construction of protective barriers, infrastructure hardening, permanent or temporary infrastructure relocation, development of climate-resilient design standards and retrofits, and green infrastructure.
• Operational approaches – promote avoidance or reduction of impacts, as well as rapid and effective response to impacts as they occur.
• Adaptive management – tracks hazards, impacts, costs, and effectiveness of adaptations and post-disaster response to inform the aforementioned categories of adaptation. This type of disciplined tracking of climate or weather impacts serves as an interim adaptation strategy to help both determine whether and what adaptation actions are necessary as well as develop a quantitative basis for investments and/or reimbursements. RWIS can be an important tool in tracking road weather conditions over time, anticipating maintenance needs, and identifying areas in need of investment.

Table 6 provides examples of some phased adaptation strategies that agencies may wish to consider. Before selecting any strategies, agencies should understand their own vulnerabilities and undertake a more robust and location-specific adaptation strategy development process.

Table 6. Sample Adaptation Strategies and Time Frames.

Vulnerability	Response	Implementing Department
Increased frequency of extreme events may require additional personnel to monitor, control, report, and respond to events. Changes in long-term climate trends may also change seasonal work requirements (e.g.,changes in winter weather seasons, construction timing, or landscaping timing) and necessitate additional or unique staff expertise to monitor and respond to new types of climate events (e.g., snow storm in Atlanta).	Short-term: Train existing personnel on the potential impacts of climate change and how this may affect their roles and responsibilities. Medium-term: Increase the availability of contract staff to assist during extreme events. Develop MOUs with other agencies for equipment and staff sharing during extreme weather events. Long-term: Hire additional staff to keep pace with increasing TSMO, maintenance, and emergency management  needs.	TSMO, Maintenance, Emergency  Management
Extreme events and long-term changes in climate can affect resource requirements. For example, increases in temperature can increase annual pavement maintenance costs, or changes in freeze/thaw cycles can increase potholes. Changes in winter weather and increasing weather uncertainty could also affect budgets.	Short-term: Increase cost tracking to respond to specific extreme weather events (see Getting Started: Data Collection Best Practices). Establish a "rainy-day" fund for unexpectedly bad years. Medium-term: Revise budgeting process and protocols to account for recent trends that may diverge from the historical baseline. Long-term: Work with meteorologists and climatologists to develop a process for taking anticipated future events into account while budgeting and planning.	Maintenance
Siting equipment in areas that will be impacted by sea level rise, ecological damage, flooding, snowfall, or other climatic events may damage the infrastructure.	Short-term: Consider FEMA flood zone maps (after confirming the relevant local maps are up to date) or other similarly informative maps when siting and designing sites for equipment. Medium-term: Include consideration of future stressors (e.g., accelerated sea level rise) when making decisions about siting equipment. Consider changes (e.g., increasing freeboard requirements) to accommodate more intense rainfall events. Long-term: Shift investments to mobile data sources (e.g., citizen reporters, snow patrol reporting, mobile probes), which are less likely to end up in harm's way.	TSMO, Maintenance
Climate stressors can lead to increased asset deterioration, requiring more frequent inspections (which can be expensive and time consuming).	Short-term: Track impacts of weather events in order to identify "hot-spots" that may require an increased rate of inspection. Long-term: Use detailed, downscaled climate models to determine portions of the state (or region) that are anticipated to have greater shifts in climate. Dedicate increased inspection resources to those areas.	Maintenance
Pavements are designed to withstand particular temperature thresholds. High temperatures may lead to rutting, while cold (and freezing) conditions increase potholes.	Short-term: Increase inspection and tracking of roadway conditions. Medium-term: Assess downscaled projected changes in temperatures to determine if a change in the pavement mix may be required. Long-term: When repaving occurs, adjust paving mix as needed. Consider utilizing cooler pavements (e.g., light-colored aggregate) to reduce surface temperatures.	Maintenance
Increased frequency of precipitation (especially extreme precipitation), and increased high heat days may decrease worker safety and require delays in construction. Certain elements of construction (e.g., laying concrete, painting roads) can only be accomplished during a narrow range of weather conditions. Changes in weather will impact the length of the construction season and the contracts with construction companies.	Short-term: Continue current worker safety and project-bid practices. Medium-term: Expand the use of technologies for pavement placing that operate better under high temperatures, for example, cold-in-place recycling, coarser aggregate, or using ice or chilled water to cool the asphalt. Investigate other technologies that are suited to faster construction during adverse weather conditions. Long-term: Consider revising the construction season to start earlier and end later due to increased temperatures. During the height of summer, shift construction work to early morning and evening hours.	Maintenance
Increased rain (in some parts of the country) paired with increased temperatures can lead to accelerated vegetation growth and death. The dry fuel that remains poses wildfire hazards.	Short-term: Increase vegetation control within existing right-of-way. Medium-term: Plant more drought tolerant vegetation that is less likely to provide fuel for wildfires. Often deferred due to resource constraints, effective decisions in this area may in fact be more critical to operational capability than anticipated.	Maintenance
Flooding or other extreme weather may cause long-term disruptions to traffic (that run counter to current understanding of demand-supply relationships in a system).	Medium-term: Develop a plan for maintenance of traffic during weather events of various intensities (including non-severe, recurrent weather). In some cases, this may require significant detours and wide area communications to support adequate traveler information. Develop plans for culvert clearing and other maintenance or asset management activities. Long-term: Create after-event reports that assess what worked and what did not. Revise plans based on lessons learned.	TSMO, Maintenance

3. Evaluate and Select Adaptation Measures

As with all transportation budgeting processes, it is unlikely that DOTs will be able to fund their entire "wish-list" of adaptation strategies. In order to narrow the list of strategies to a prioritized list, it is useful to use a systematic evaluation process.

Some agencies may have established evaluation criteria for projects through other processes; if so, a variation on those criteria may prove to be an effective communication tool. If no such criteria exist, the following criteria may provide a useful starting point:

• Technical and Political Feasibility – how practical it is for a particular strategy to be implemented, accounting for engineering, policy, legal, and insurance considerations?
• Cost and Benefits – what are the up-front costs of implementation and the ongoing operations and maintenance costs? If implemented, what is the value of the damages from climate change that would be avoided?
• Efficacy – if implemented, to what extent would the strategy reduce the risk?
• Flexibility – if implemented, how easy would it be to revise the strategy at a later date? What is the adaptive management potential of the strategy?
• Sustainability – does the strategy advance the "triple bottom line" of sustainability (e.g., what are the impacts to the economy, society, and the environment)?²⁶

Depending on the needs of the DOT, the evaluation can be qualitative or quantitative in nature. A qualitative evaluation process is generally sufficient for selecting priorities while a quantified evaluation may be necessary in order to justify funding. A qualitative evaluation may use a simple three point or five point scale (e.g., low, medium, high or positive, neutral, negative) or rely on a narrative description of the pros and cons of the strategies. A quantitative evaluation can be more effective when competing for funding because it enables an agency to show hard numbers about the benefits of the program. Additionally, quantitative evaluation metrics (e.g., reduction in traffic delay) can be translated into financial benefits to be used in an economic assessment of the strategy. In some cases, as with FEMA Hazard Mitigation Funding, it is required to demonstrate the cost effectiveness of adaptation strategies before they will be funded. For more information on cost effectiveness tools and resources, see the Additional Resources section of this document.

While evaluation metrics are a useful tool for informing the decision making process, they should not be the basis for the entire decision making process. The input of the staff who work on these programs on a daily basis and of the decision makers who understand the needs of the community are also important pieces of information to take into account during the strategy selection process. Additionally, it is recommended that the total number of evaluation measures be kept to a small set of valued measures in order to allow for the output to be digestible and meaningful.

4. Determine Improvements in Capabilities Necessary for Successful Implementation

Successful implementation of adaptation measures may require more overarching enhancements to the agency's capabilities. As described in Section II.E. FHWA has developed a primer that outlines six dimensions of capability that are closely associated with more effective TSMO activities (including those related to reducing climate change impacts).²⁷

Improvements in one or more of these capabilities may be necessary to successfully implement the adaptation strategies discussed under "Identify Potential Adaptation Strategies." Table 8 denotes which of the above capabilities apply to a range of potential adaptation strategies.

Table 8. Example Adaptation Strategies and Capability Maturity Framework Categories.

Adaptation Strategies	Capability Maturity Framework Category
	Business processes	Systems & Technologies	Performance Management	Culture	Organization& Workforce	Collaboration	Maintenance
Modify current design and procurement criteria to favor durable materials and designs (e.g., paints, paving materials, drainage features), factoring in likely future climate conditions.	X	X		X		X	X
Develop a system to track weather-related trends and costs over time (e.g., number of potholes repaired, snow removal costs, number of emergency event triggers, labor hours devoted to weather preparation, response, and recovery), such as through designated "weather-related"charge codes.	X	X	X
Establish stand-by contracts for extreme event response.	X				X
Provide a strategy for identifying trends in weather for budget setting,accounting for the fact that historical conditions are not necessarily representative of future conditions under a changing climate. Consider weighting previous years differently. If higher cost years are weighted more heavily, they can provide a buffer in the budget. In addition to a short-term average of previous year costs, consider looking at a longer trend line in costs and applying an incremental increase in the budget to account for the trend. Consider adding a buffer in the budget forecast to account for the uncertainty in coming weather conditions.	X
Consider the life-cycle costs of resiliency investments and savings in budgeting and design.	X
Use asset management systems to track relevant information to inform decision making over time.	X
Incorporate future TSMO and maintenance needs into planning, design, and construction (e.g., require operations and maintenance signature approval on certain contracts and plans).	X			X		X
Require after-action reports with clear recommendations for improvement following extreme events.	X
Update emergency response plans to factor in potential for greater frequency of extreme weather events.	X
Improve intra-agency coordination, information sharing about conditions, closures, resources, etc.				X		X
Improve inter-agency coordination, information sharing about plans, initiatives, risks, resources, etc. (e.g., include key stakeholders in routine communications to streamline process during emergency events).				X		X
Harden emergency telecommunications systems.		X
Invest in redundant communications systems.		X
Invest in redundant data servers.		X
Develop and track performance metrics related to extreme weather (e.g., number/duration of weather-related road closures).			X	X
Purchase equipment, factoring in likely future needs based on extreme weather events or climate changes (e.g., versatile equipment in Alabama to double as snow plows, mobile stockpiles of traffic control devices).		X					X
Improve cross-training across staff (including across operations, maintenance, and emergency management).				X	X	X	X
Develop a system to track weather trends over time (e.g., Winter Severity Index, Summer Severity Index).	X		X
Improve tracking of maintenance expenses and operational disruptions, including their cause and severity, and incorporate that information into budgeting processes over time.	X		X	X
Stockpile materials (e.g., culvert pipe, temporary bridge components, fuel) and equipment (e.g., generators, chain saws, traffic control devices) and stage them in strategic areas prior to events.							X
Expand both coverage and quality of fixed and mobile monitoring capabilities within the agency.		X
Increase coverage of real-time weather and roadway conditions using a combination of on-the-ground staff (and potentially citizens), sensors, and mobile technology.		X				X
Establish honest and continued dialogue with the public about funding shortfalls, climate change, and prioritizations and realistic expectations of road clearance and level of service.				X
Establish regular coordination between on-the-ground staff and other departments to discuss "hot spot" areas and inform investment decisions based on past performance.			X	X	X	X	X
Leverage existing technologies such as RWIS to provide additional insight on climate change or respond to climate change. For example, portable RWIS could be deployed in areas that are particularly vulnerable to climate changes such as areas of flooding or extreme heat, and assist with tracking trends.		X
Use Maintenance Decision Support Systems (MDSS) or other existing tools to run a series of hypothetical future storm events in order to inform operational planning exercises.		X
Develop culture of information sharing, transition planning to ensure institutional knowledge is not vulnerable to retirement, workforce transitions, etc.				X
Establish regular, structured discussion and collaboration between State DOTs, the National Weather Service, State climatologists, US Geological Survey (USGS), and other relevant partners.				X		X
Conduct table-top exercises or develop an approach for using "routine" emergencies to determine lines and communication and protocols (e.g., what to do when there is heavy snow blocking access to a hospital). Potentially include the public in practice drills (e.g., contraflow lanes).						X
Review and consider mitigating vulnerabilities when conducting scheduled maintenance activities.							X

F. Monitor and Revisit

Monitoring and evaluating helps keep adaptation efforts on track as new information on climate risks emerges, evidence of the effectiveness of adaptation strategies becomes available, or other programmatic changes occur. Monitoring and evaluating serve to assess progress toward goals and objectives. These functions help an agency identify which activities are working well and which ones need to be refined.

The FHWA Framework²⁸ describes the following steps as key to efforts to monitor and revisit:

• Establish a monitoring and evaluation plan.
• Engage stakeholders.
• Monitor and collect data on relevant indicators.
• Evaluate the project and its outcomes.
• Revisit.

TSMO and maintenance programs are flexible (much more so than infrastructure planning and design decisions) and can evolve as conditions change.

Monitoring trends in extreme weather events (such as frequency of particular events as well as impacts on TSMO and maintenance) and evaluating the effectiveness of actions will help to continually inform decision making. Monitoring trends in extreme weather events, for example, can help decision makers recognize when they need to manage for "new normal" conditions. As mentioned above, climate change refers to significant variations in temperature, precipitation, wind patterns, and other measures of climate lasting for an extended period of time. It may be decades before there is a robust enough set of data to attribute changes in trends to climate change. Such attribution is not necessary, though, to recognize that what once was rare is now routine.

Further, collection, storage, and analysis of monitoring weather data and the impacts of extreme weather events on TSMO, maintenance, and emergency managers (e.g., through post-event assessments and documentation) may be integrated into existing asset management systems or other systems to facilitate continuous or on-demand evaluation of the effectiveness of existing practices. This can also help to assess the need to revisit assumptions, underlying data, approaches, or program goals and objectives articulated at the outset.