Freight and Land Use Travel Demand Evaluation: Final Report

Section 2: Key Project Findings

This project began with a literature review and moved on to the expert working session, each phase building on previous activities to provide a clearer understanding of the state of the practice. The findings presented in this section reflect all of these activities, as well as the different stakeholder views solicited as part of the project efforts. These views provided perspectives on challenges and gaps as well as products for future development.

The QRFM Requires Updating

The current QRFM was developed in 2007 and requires updating to capture changes in the transportation and freight industries. While gaps in freight data still exist, there have been significant strides in data collection methods and sources as well as technological advances in the freight industry, including some of the initiatives listed in Table 2.

Table 2: The Research/Synthesis Cycle

The Research/Synthesis Cycle
QRFM published as landmark document (2007)
Syntheses of information identified current status/need (2008-2010)
Second Strategic Highway Program (SHRP2) Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement (C20) organized the next wave of research (2012-2016)
SHRP2 studies were completed (2016-2017) and will be ready for "synthesis" in projects like the QRFM update

The QRFM is oriented toward Federal, State, and metropolitan agency audiences; however, the concepts of freight-efficient land uses and context-sensitive trip generation are also valuable to local land use planning and zoning authorities. These users' needs vary widely given their agencies' different geographic scales, strategic priorities, and other factors. As such, it is important to rethink the audience for the QRFM and package it in a form that is useful to all users from the State to local levels.

Since the last QRFM, a wave of technological progress has changed the way people find, consume, and use information. Plans need to incorporate data visualization that connect to users in ways that adapt to their needs, not simply used to make data look good and read well. The current QRFM is an extensive document that exists as a PDF on a website. This format is not user-friendly and can be difficult to navigate when a user is quickly looking for information on a certain topic.

Following the 2007 QRFM release, a series of syntheses released between 2008 and 2010 focused on applications such as freight travel forecasting. These syntheses formed the basis for later National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) projects, since identified as additional foundation literature. During the next wave of research conducted as part of the SHRP2 C20 effort between 2012 and 2016, the emphasis shifted toward land use and demographic-sensitive context related to freight and goods movement. Understanding this evolution in research and practice helps reveal how the outputs of this project can lead to new developments; it also provides a good framework for the project's recommendations.

With the next QRFM update, it will be important to think about who the new users will be over the next decade as well as the QRFM's overall format and content. An updated QRFM can affect the direction of the freight transportation industry and freight planning more generally. Stakeholders participating in this project's outreach activities suggested that the QRFM present information via a more interactive audience-based approach that would allow them to search for guidance related to their freight planning needs or application. An interactive manual that is more graphically rich will better enable users to quickly understand what is important to them.

From a content perspective, disseminating practical user guidance for freight demand modeling faces some version of "future shock" associated with an accelerating pace of change. Most QRFM users are tasked with using freight demand projections to help make transportation facility recommendations for projects that are expected to have a lifespan of several decades. However, the vehicles that will use these facilities will probably have a lifespan of years rather than decades. The technologies that will govern freight distribution may have a lifespan of months rather than years. The QRFM must communicate the challenges of integrating decisionmaking across these temporal scales so that infrastructure investments can sustain several cycles of unpredictable technology changes.

Another consideration is the degree to which research and development is perceived as independent from practitioner support. A general cyclical trend has occurred during the past decade: the QRFM serves as the end of one phase of research, while SHRP2 and other synthesis papers serve as the beginning of the next phase. Tools developed to support practitioners, such as the QRFM, need to evolve as advancements are made through these research and development cycles.

Specific recommendations for the QRFM update are outlined in Section 3 and Section 4 of this document.

Gaps are Significant; There is Insufficient Information Available on How to Address Them

One output of SHRP2 C20 research has been a comprehensive list of needs articulated by freight travel demand modelers and freight decision-makers. This list includes needs to develop:

Data

• Standardized data sources with common definitions.
• Statistical sampling of truck shipments.
• Methods for surveying businesses to obtain local freight trip generation rates, including use of technology such as Global Positioning System (GPS) and mobile apps.
• Data development to understand the nature, volume, and trends of intermodal transfers.
• Industry-level freight data development at a subregional level and within urban areas.
• Use of intelligent transportation systems (ITS) resources to generate data for freight modeling.

Models

• Standardized analytic tools and applications.
• Inclusion of behavior-based elements in freight models.
• Truck touring models for urban goods delivery.
• Development of a universal multimodal, network-based model for various geographic scales.
• Incorporation of local land use policies and controls for better local forecasting accuracy.

Applications

• Improved understanding of interactions between freight activity and various economic influences and macroeconomic trends.
• Development of a process to routinely generate new data sources and problem-solving methods.
• Development of benefit-cost analysis tools that go beyond traditional financial measures.
• Development of funding assessments resulting from freight forecasts.
• Creation of technical guidance and support toolkits to support the infrastructure design process.

Much of the research for this project provided information on where/what the gaps are in understanding the land use and freight interaction. NCFRP Report 37, Using Commodity Flow Survey Microdata and Other Establishment Data to Estimate the Generation of Freight, Freight Trips, and Service Trips: Guidebook, fills a practical gap in this information. Many practitioners are also using current resources to develop contextual and customized solutions to their challenges, contributing to a wide diversity of applications that do not necessarily align with one another or make best use of leveraging resources/information.

Freight Movement Trends are Evolving Quickly

Freight movement trends are changing. Ten years ago, households might get one or two packages a month. Now, with the advent of on-demand deliveries, these same households may receive one or two packages a day, ranging from e-commerce deliveries to other same-day local grocery deliveries. Households have now become part of the larger production-consumption (PC) link in a way they were not a decade ago. Traditionally, the freight portion of the goods movement paradigm ended with delivery of goods to a retail establishment; after that point, "home-based shopping" travel by residents would be used to purchase the goods from retailers. Now, however, much "last-mile" delivery ends directly with the consumer, so that households are considered the end point of the freight supply chain.

In addition, these changes may also be playing out differently depending on geographic context (rural versus urban). Preliminary data suggests that shopping and home delivery trips are neither perfect complements nor perfect substitutes. People travel to stores for "experiential retail," to inspect goods they will buy online. In other cases, consumers only buy certain items at stores or online.

Current freight and land use datasets, tools, and analyses may not reflect these trends accurately. For example, "e-commerce-enabled freight" is one potential gap; these trips are not represented in existing passenger demand models, which focus heavily on individuals' trips made to fulfill daily out-of-home activity needs. The models also do not address how distance is perhaps less important than the time factor for this type of household-level decision-making. Survey mechanisms in particular are also insufficient; many questions about household freight are simply not asked. Some Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) with more technical resources may be exploring new ways to capture this data. Ultimately, more local surveys are needed to help connect existing models to local activities. Furthermore, national collection also is difficult. What level of accuracy is needed? How do we improve the availability and visibility of data among agencies and between the public and private sectors? Are commonly sourced datasets available at smaller geographic scales?

The state of the practice is evolving toward behavioral-based freight models (BBFM) that can more precisely reflect truck-touring behavior associated with e-commerce goods movement and treat them as light truck trips in a manner similar to service trip generation (STG) and route assignment. This has become the default approach and is described in greater detail in a FHWA report on behavioral supply chain modeling guidance.¹

An alternative, or perhaps complementary, approach would be to treat household deliveries as part of a "home-based other" trip generated by the residential unit itself (rather than the people who reside in the unit). Household surveys may still be the best source to collect information related to service trips and residential deliveries. Estimates at the household level are usually more accurate, due to lower degree of household type variation and the value in household surveys for a variety of other socioeconomic and trip-making behavior. Thinking about the need for services (such as pool service, home repairs, appliance replacement, etc.) and goods (grocery, apparel, household furniture, etc.), it is likely that some of the freight demand can be explained or predicted by household and personal attributes. This can lead to new ways to standardize questions related to consumption of services and goods as part of the household profile. It can also support efforts to determine reliable trip rates by type of goods and services in the future. NCHRP Project 08-117, Impact of Transformational Technologies on Land Uses, is anticipated to start during 2018 and includes an effort to consider the last-mile effect of getting goods to the customer. This may be one useful avenue for exploring the concept of the "freight/life" paradigm.

New Modeling Frameworks are Being Developed

Freight demand models have typically been based on population, employment, and industry-level forecasts. New frameworks are emerging to better integrate land use, transportation, and economic activity. These newer modeling frameworks are designed to address several areas of interest:

Goods movement activities throughout the "production-consumption" linkage - an improved understanding of the continuum of freight activities from production through warehousing and distribution to final delivery.

The changing nature of what constitutes freight - residential deliveries are increasingly important as a factor in both local decisionmaking from a site and community design perspective as well as in supply chain modeling with larger regional, megaregional, and national implications.

Land use differences - the ways in which rural, suburban, and urban contexts differ and how those differences are being shaped by redevelopment of older industrial districts.

Industry differences - land use codes such as the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) or Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) land use types provide one level of information regarding economic development, but other nuances remain in the industry. For instance, not all warehouse or distribution land uses are the same, nor do they generate the same types of freight impacts.

Scalable data approaches - connecting freight forecasting and supply chain decisions at site, corridor, regional, and national levels.

To improve goods movement within and to communities, it is critical to understanding how land use and economic decisions can affect freight activity and how data models can reflect these interrelations.

Additional challenges and needs related to modeling frameworks have been identified, including:

Developing commonly sourced data sets that can be used on smaller geographic scales.

Improving the availability and visibility of data among agencies and between the public and private sectors, especially in helping to coordinate data licensing agreement limitations.

Capturing local context information more effectively and using it successfully for regional conversations. In particular, what are the sources for local land use data? What can those sources tell us about current and future freight demand?

Better categorizing industry gaps in existing freight datasets, particularly those related to localized economic activities (e.g., local food systems activities).

Developing a more universal, open-source freight modeling tool, as many users must piece together data or improvise with available resources.

Dealing with intermodal connections and issues. This may include international corridor issues and may include all other modes—aviation, maritime/port, etc.—and interfacing with multimodal considerations, including those around public transport.

Understanding issues in predominantly rural or "bridge" States where there may be significant freight trips that do not have origins or destinations within the State.

Understanding localized truck context and issues such as parking, platooning, changes in urban delivery systems, manufacturing industrial centers, etc.

Enacting emerging policy mechanisms such as freight ordinances to help connect regional and local freight activities and impacts.

BBFMs help illuminate the activities of freight movement and urban delivery systems by taking into account the decisions each operator must make. These depend on an array of factors, such as the nature of the goods being moved, the location of each trip within the supply chain from production to consumption, and the context of the communities where the trips occur.

More sophisticated and integrated modeling frameworks continue to be developed and disseminated, but a new phase of research and development is now underway:

FHWA is undertaking exploratory advanced research on a national BBFM project aimed at utilizing the Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) to the highest extent and incorporating international elements.

The SHRP2 program is working on an analytic approach that will be the foundation for an effective land use and freight framework and related models.

National Cooperative Freight Research Program (NCFRP) Project 49, Understanding and Using New Data Sources to Address Urban and Metropolitan Freight Challenges, includes new strategies and examples of new information-gathering techniques and data fusion (e.g., using multiple datasets to develop a stronger contextual freight understanding; examples include artificial intelligence, computer visioning, radar/light detection and ranging (LiDAR)/sensors, and surveillance technology).

Stakeholder Engagement is Critical

Engagement with a broad set of stakeholders is required to identify key issues (which includes developing new data sources) and implement solutions. The following stakeholder groups are of particular importance for these efforts:

Local transportation and land use planners and practitioners - These professionals analyze current and future impacts associated with development, but freight is sometimes overlooked in these discussions. Currently there is limited information or guidance around how to adapt local planning processes to include freight-specific considerations.

Private freight industry and freight data providers - Privately held information and decisionmaking insights can greatly enhance public conversations. Private sector freight stakeholders might include traditional carriers, but also larger trucking and rail organizations as well as data providers.

Elected officials (local, State, Federal) - There is a need to better understand what information elected officials require to support freight planning and its outcomes.

Emerging freight actors - These include organizations like e-retailers at a national level and more localized delivery service organizations with an emerging role in freight discussions.

Including representatives from the above (and other) stakeholder groups in the freight analysis/planning conversation will support more effective coordination, governance, and decisionmaking. For example, such inclusion could help an MPO articulate more effectively to the public the changing nature of freight or influence and collaborate with local planners to support freight activities. It could also help to develop and enhance the conversation about economic competitiveness, as was done in a successful pilot by the Maricopa Association of Governments.²

Targeted Communication is Essential

Planners need to have a wide set of options—best practices for a city transportation planner may not be the same as those for a State Department of Transportation (DOT) planner or an MPO planner. However, all planners undertake analyses and make decisions that are intrinsically freight-related. In addition to developing future freight tools, effort should be applied to developing a set of emerging practice options and best practices suited for various contexts, agencies, and stakeholders.

Guidance on best practices for freight modeling should focus on effectively conveying a story to a specific audience. Key communications concepts (in many cases summarizing elements described above) include:

Anticipate "what if" questions by utilizing a scenario planning approach to better articulate and address the uncertainties underlying practitioners' and planners' assumptions.

Describe the problem in terms that are important to the audience; many decision-makers are not particularly concerned with truck volume or delays as a performance measure. On the other hand they may be interested in related outcomes within their jurisdictions such as economic success (as assessed by outcome measures such as jobs creation, value of goods delivered or property tax increases) and quality of life (assessed by outcome measures such as reduced civic complaints about truck traffic on residential streets).

Apply compelling visualization tools to make the problem and the solution come alive to the audience. This communications approach should be applied either in conjunction with or independent from the application of innovative data sources and modeling tools.

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