Office of Operations
21st Century Operations Using 21st Century Technologies

Calibration in Quantitative Alternatives Analysis

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United States Department of Transportation logo.

U.S. Department of Transportation
Federal Highway Administration
Office of Operations
1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
Washington, DC 20590
ops.fhwa.dot.gov

November 2020

FHWA-HOP-20-057


Table of Contents

[ Notice and Quality Assurance Statement ] [ Technical Report Documentation Page ] [ SI Modern Metric Conversion Factors ] [ List of Acronyms]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION
BACKGROUND
OBJECTIVE
CHALLENGES AND SOLUTIONS
CALIBRATION NEEDS
CHAPTER 2. REVIEW OF CALIBRATION METHODOLOGIES
SCENARIO-BASED CALIBRATION
CORRELATED PARAMETERS
TRAJECTORY-BASED CALIBRATION
CONCLUSIONS
CHAPTER 3. DATA ASSESSMENT
DATA COLLECTION TECHNIQUES
DATA PROCESSING AND ENHANCEMENT
ROLE OF VEHICLE TRAJECTORIES IN THE TAT CALIBRATION PROCEDURE
LOCAL DENSITY THROUGH VEHICLE TRAJECTORIES
DATA REQUIREMENTS
DATA STRUCTURE
CONCLUSIONS
CHAPTER 4. CALIBRATION NEEDS
GAP ANALYSIS AND GAP IMPACTS
IMPACTS OF THE GAPS
CALIBRATION NEEDS
CALIBRATION NEEDS LIBRARIES
CONCLUSIONS
CHAPTER 5. METHODOLOGY AND FRAMEWORK
OVERALL FRAMEWORK
LIBRARY OF PARAMETERS
AGENT AND SCENARIO GENERATION PROCESS
SCENARIO-BASED ANALYSIS
ROBUSTNESS-BASED ANALYSIS
CONCLUSIONS
CHAPTER 6. CASE STUDY
ACCELERATION (CAR FOLLOWING) FRAMEWORK
CASE STUDY SCENARIOS AND AGENTS
CONCLUSIONS
CHAPTER 7. STEP-BY-STEP APPROACH
CHAPTER 8. CONCLUSION
APPENDIX A. SUGGESTED NUMBER OF SCENARIOS AND NUMBER OF RUNS
APPENDIX B. USING BAYESIAN INFERENCE TO UPDATE SCENARIO PROBABILITIES
REFERENCES

List of Figures

Figure 1. Formula. Relationship between inputs, outputs, and model parameters
Figure 2. Formula. Fitness functions used as the objective function in calibration
Figure 3. Formula. Weather effect coefficient in DYNASMART-P
Figure 4. Diagram. Schematic representation of different conditions that impact a transportation network
Figure 5. Formula. State-space formulation for generic online calibration
Figure 6. Formula. Relationship between time mean speed and space mean speed
Figure 7. Flowchart. The traffic analysis tools calibration procedure
Figure 8. Formula. Relationship between density and space mean speed
Figure 9. Formula. Space mean speed in the two-fluid theory
Figure 10. Formula. Relationship between road density and fraction of stopped vehicles
Figure 11. Formula. Density as a function of velocity and acceleration
Figure 12. Illustration. Parameters with the least level of uncertainty [type 1]
Figure 13. Illustration. Parameters with some level of uncertainty [type 2]
Figure 14. Formula. Regret formulation
Figure 15. Illustration. Parameters with the deep uncertainty [type 3]
Figure 16. Flowchart. Overall framework
Figure 17. Illustration. Process of developing a scenario/agent
Figure 18. Flowchart. Proposed calibration framework
Figure 19. Illustration. Constructing model output (travel time) distribution based on scenario-specific simulation outputs
Figure 20. Formula. Newell car-following model (trajectory translation model)
Figure 21. Formula. Gipps car-following model
Figure 22. Formula. Helly car-following model
Figure 23. Formula. The Intelligent Driver Model
Figure 24. Formula. The stimulus-response acceleration model in MITSIMLab
Figure 25. Formula. The Lane-Changing Model with Relaxation and Synchronization
Figure 26. Formula. A probabilistic model for lane changing
Figure 27. Formula. A gap acceptance model based on standard cumulative normal distribution
Figure 28. Formula. A probit gap acceptance model for bicyclists and motorists
Figure 29. Formula. Queue discharge rate in DYNASMART-P
Figure 30. Graph. Type 1 modified Greenshields model (dual-regime model)
Figure 31. Formula. Type 1 modified Greenshields model
Figure 32. Graph. Type 2 modified Greenshields model (single-regime model)
Figure 33. Formula. Type 2 modified Greenshields model
Figure 34. Formula. Greenberg’s logarithmic model
Figure 35. Formula. Underwood’s exponential model
Figure 36. Formula. Pipes’ generalized model
Figure 37. Formula. Weather effect adjustment of model parameters in DYNASMART
Figure 38. Formula. Weather adjustment factor as a function of weather condition
Figure 39. Formula. Scheduling cost in a demand model proposed by Frei et al. (2014)
Figure 40. Formula. Link-level cost function proposed by Perez et al. (2012)
Figure 41. Formula. A generalized mode choice utility function
Figure 42. Formula. A time-of-day choice utility function
Figure 43. Formula. A destination choice utility function
Figure 44. Formula. Highway utility function proposed by Vovsha et al. (2013)
Figure 45. Flowchart. Entity relationship diagram of the model parameter libraries
Figure 46. Illustration. Process of generating agents and scenarios
Figure 47. Flowchart. Scenario-based analysis
Figure 48. Flowchart. Robustness-based analysis
Figure 49. Illustration. I-290E study segment in Chicago, IL
Figure 50. Formula. Value function for the uncongested regime
Figure 51. Formula. Value function for the congested regime
Figure 52. Formula. Binary probabilistic regime selection model
Figure 53. Formula. Total utility function for the choice of acceleration
Figure 54. Formula. Probability density function for the evaluation of drivers’ stochastic response
Figure 55. Formula. The intelligent driver acceleration model
Figure 56. Illustration. Radar sensor formation on an automated vehicle
Figure 57. Formula. Maximum speed of automated vehicles
Figure 58. Formula. Acceleration model for automated vehicles
Figure 59. Diagram. Maximum safe speed curve
Figure 60. Formula. Safe following distance formula
Figure 61. Formula. Acceleration of automated vehicles
Figure 62. Chart. Extended form of the lane-changing game with inactive vehicle-to-vehicle communication
Figure 63. Diagrams. Compound figure depicts fundamental diagrams for different demand levels
Figure 64. Equation. Weighted average travel time of the scenarios
Figure 65. Charts. Compound figure depicts travel time distribution for mainline vehicles under different interarrival time scenarios
Figure 66. Charts. Compound figure depicts fundamental diagrams for different levels of aggressiveness in driving behavior
Figure 67. Charts. Compound figure depicts travel time distributions for mainline vehicles under different aggressive driving scenarios
Figure 68. Diagram. Fundamental diagrams for different levels of aggressiveness in driving behavior
Figure 69. Charts. Compound figure depicts travel time distribution for the mainline vehicles under various aggressive driver and conservative driver mix scenarios
Figure 70. Charts. Compound figure depicts fundamental diagrams for a scenario in which the connected vehicle market penetration rate is 0 percent and the automated vehicle market penetration rate is 0 percent
Figure 71. Charts. Compound figure depicts fundamental diagrams for a scenario in which the connected vehicle market penetration rate is 0 percent and the automated vehicle market penetration rate is 25 percent
Figure 72. Charts. Compound figure depicts fundamental diagrams for a scenario in which the connected vehicle market penetration rate is 0 percent and the automated vehicle market penetration rate is 50 percent
Figure 73. Charts. Compound figure depicts fundamental diagrams for a scenario in which the connected vehicle market penetration rate is 0 percent and the automated vehicle market penetration rate is 75 percent
Figure 74. Charts. Compound figure depicts fundamental diagrams for a scenario in which the connected vehicle market penetration rate is 0 percent and the automated vehicle market penetration rate is 100 percent
Figure 75. Charts. Compound figure depicts fundamental diagrams for a scenario in which the connected vehicle market penetration rate is 25 percent and the automated vehicle market penetration rate is 0 percent
Figure 76. Charts. Compound figure depicts fundamental diagrams for a scenario in which the connected vehicle market penetration rate is 25 percent and the automated vehicle market penetration rate is 25 percent
Figure 77. Charts. Compound figure depicts fundamental diagrams for a scenario in which the connected vehicle market penetration rate is 25 percent and the automated vehicle market penetration rate is 50 percent
Figure 78. Charts. Compound figure depicts fundamental diagrams for a scenario in which the connected vehicle market penetration rate is 25 percent and the automated vehicle market penetration rate is 75 percent
Figure 79. Charts. Compound figure depicts fundamental diagrams for a scenario in which the connected vehicle market penetration rate is 50 percent and the automated vehicle market penetration rate is 0 percent
Figure 80. Charts. Compound figure depicts fundamental diagrams for a scenario in which the connected vehicle market penetration rate is 50 percent and the automated vehicle market penetration rate is 25 percent
Figure 81. Charts. Compound figure depicts fundamental diagrams for a scenario in which the connected vehicle market penetration rate is 50 percent and the automated vehicle market penetration rate is 50 percent
Figure 82. Charts. Compound figure depicts fundamental diagrams for a scenario in which the connected vehicle market penetration rate is 75 percent and the automated vehicle market penetration rate is 0 percent
Figure 83. Charts. Compound figure depicts fundamental diagrams for a scenario in which the connected vehicle market penetration rate is 75 percent and the automated vehicle market penetration rate is 25 percent
Figure 84. Charts. Compound figure depicts fundamental diagrams for a scenario in which the connected vehicle market penetration rate is 100 percent and the automated vehicle market penetration rate is 0 percent
Figure 85. Equation. Travel time based on the Hurwicz optimism pessimism rule
Figure 86. Diagram. Fundamental diagrams of mixed traffic scenarios
Figure 87. Diagrams. Compound figure depicts average travel time at different market penetration rates for autonomous vehicles and connected vehicles on a selected segment of I-290
Figure 88. Diagram. Example for calculating the regret summation for the speed in the speed-density profile
Figure 89. Diagram. Regret-based robustness metrics for different performance measures
Figure 90. Diagram. Scenario rankings for various regret-based robustness metrics and performance measures
Figure 91. Formula. Multivariate kernel density estimation formula
Figure 92. Illustration. Compound figure depicts the process of smoothing the simulation output using the multivariate kernel density estimation method
Figure 93. Formula. Relative mean integrated square error
Figure 94. Formula. Minimum number of simulation runs for each scenario
Figure 95. Formula. Bayes’ rule
Figure 96. Formula. Relationship between prior and posterior states of mutually exclusive scenarios
Figure 97. Formula. Revised Bayes’ rule
Figure 98. Equation. Relationship between prior and posterior probabilities in example 1
Figure 99. Equation. Relationship between prior and posterior probabilities in example 2

List of Tables

Table 1 Challenges and solutions for calibration to account for future conditions
Table 2 Typical data elements for exogenous sources of variation in system performance measures
Table 3 Parameters of three car-following models
Table 4 Parameters of microscopic models
Table 5 Parameters of strategic models
Table 6 Primary components of the calibration framework
Table 7 Transformations for robustness metrics
Table 8 Discretionary lane-changing game with inactive vehicle-to-vehicle communication in normal form
Table 9 Mandatory lane-changing game with inactive vehicle-to-vehicle communication in normal form
Table 10 Basic statistics of the weighing factor for accidents (wc) and the maximum anticipation time horizon (τmax) parameters
Table 11 Scenarios with different market penetration percentages by agent
Table 12 New scenario identifiers
Table 13 Suggested number of scenarios to simulate
Table 14 Minimum number of simulation runs for each scenario
Table 15 Prior probabilities for different demand scenarios
Table 16 Prior and posterior probabilities for different demand scenarios in example 1
Table 17 Prior and posterior probabilities for different demand scenarios in example 2