Integrated Modeling for Road Condition Prediction Phase 3 Project Report

1. Report No.

2. Government Accession No.

3. Recipient's Catalog No.

4. Title and Subtitle

Integrated Modeling for Road Condition Prediction Phase 3 Project Report

5. Report Date

October 2020

6. Performing Organization Code

7. Author(s)

J. Kyle Garrett; Jiaqi Ma; Hani Mahmassani; Michelle Neuner; Bob Sanchez

8. Performing Organization Report No.

9. Performing Organization Name and Address

10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS)

11. Contract or Grant No.

DTFH6116DOOO53L

12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address

United States Department of Transportation
Federal Highway Administration
1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
Washington, DC 20590

13. Type of Report and Period Covered

Project Report
3/26/2018–9/25/2020

14. Sponsoring Agency Code

15. Supplementary Notes

Road Weather Management Program
Task Order Contracting Officer Representative (TOCOR): Jawad Paracha

16. Abstract

Transportation Systems Management and Operations (TSMO) is at a critical point in its development due to increased data availability and analytics. New approaches in road weather management are bringing together meteorology, traffic management, law enforcement, maintenance, and traveler information to support agency decision making and influence travel behavior. This convergence of opportunities has led the Federal Highway Administration’s (FHWA) Road Weather Management Program (RWMP) to initiate research into Integrated Modeling for Road Condition Prediction (IMRCP) to investigate and capture that potential. Phase 1 of IMRCP developed the foundational concept of operations and requirements. The IMRCP phase 2 work specified, implemented, tested, and evaluated the IMRCP concept in a demonstration. The IMRCP phase 3 project builds on the prior work to investigate operations applications. Phase 3 has expanded geographical coverage to all Kansas City metropolitan area highways, enhanced the dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) model deployed in phase 2, added an alternative machine learning-based traffic model, and updated the system documentation. The project report describes the phase 3 development, demonstration, evaluation, and assessment of the IMRCP. It provides a summary description of the system design, the study area deployment and engagement, operations experience, evaluation, and recommendations for further study.

17. Key Words

Prediction; Road Weather Management Program (RWMP); transportation system management and operations (TSMO); weather-responsive traffic management (WRTM); traffic modeling; road condition; weather; road weather; Integrated Modeling for Road Condition Prediction (IMRCP); METRo; TrEPS; MLP

18. Distribution Statement

No restrictions.

19. Security Classification (of this report)

Unclassified

20. Security Classification (of this page)

Unclassified

21. No of Pages

68

22. Price

n/a