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Seattle-Lake Washington Corridor Urban Partnership Agreement National Evaluation Plan

Executive Summary

This report provides an analytical framework for evaluating the Seattle/Lake Washington Corridor (LWC) Urban Partnership Agreement (UPA) under the United States Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) UPA program. It identifies the hypothesis and questions to be tested and answered in the evaluation, the evaluation analyses and measures of effectiveness, and the data needed to conduct the analysis.

The evaluation plan identified in this document will be carried out in partnership between the Seattle/Lake Washington Corridor UPA local partners and a national evaluation team retained by the U.S. DOT. The national evaluation team is responsible for developing the evaluation plan in coordination with the local partners, including specifying required data, analyzing data, and reporting results. The local partners are responsible for coordinating with the national evaluation team on evaluation plans and for collecting the necessary evaluation data.

Background

In 2006, the U.S. DOT, in partnership with metropolitan areas, initiated a program to explore reducing congestion through the implementation of pricing activities combined with necessary supporting elements. This program was instituted through the UPAs and the Congestion Reduction Demonstrations (CRDs). Within each program, multiple sites around the U.S., including Seattle, were selected through a competitive process. The selected sites were awarded funding for implementation of congestion reduction strategies. The applicants' proposals for congestion reduction were based on four complementary strategies known as the 4Ts: Tolling, Transit, Telecommuting, which includes additional travel demand management (TDM) strategies, and Technology.

The evaluation of the UPA/CRD national evaluation is sponsored by the U.S. DOT. The Research and Innovative Technology Administration (RITA) Intelligent Transportation Systems Joint Program Office (ITS JPO) is responsible for the overall conduct of the national evaluation. Representatives from the modal agencies are actively involved in the national evaluation. The Battelle team was selected by the U.S. DOT to conduct the national evaluation through a competitive procurement process.

The purpose of the national evaluation is to assess the impacts of the UPA/CRD projects in a comprehensive and systematic manner across all sites. The national evaluation will generate information and produce technology transfer materials to support deployment of the strategies in other metropolitan areas. The national evaluation will also generate findings for use in future federal policy and program development related to mobility, congestion, and facility pricing. The Battelle team developed a National Evaluation Framework (NEF) to provide a foundation for evaluation of the UPA/CRD sites. The NEF is based on the 4Ts congestion reduction strategies and the questions that the U.S. DOT seeks to answer through the evaluation.

The Seattle/LWC UPA

The Seattle/LWC UPA partners are the Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT), King County, and the Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC). The Seattle/LWC projects are intended to reduce congestion on SR 520 between Interstate 405 and Interstate 5, a heavily-traveled east-west commuter route across Lake Washington. The lake separates downtown Seattle and coastal points to the south from eastside communities like Redmond and Bellevue. The location of SR 520 is shown in Figure ES-1.

Figure ES-1. Map of the Seattle area showing major highways. The portion of State Route 520 between Interstate Route 405 and Interstate Route 5 is indicated by highlighting. Washington State Department of Transportation, SR 520 Variable Tolling Project Environmental Assessment, March 2009.

Figure ES-1. SR 520 Location

The U.S. DOT is allocating $154.5 million in Federal grant funding for the Seattle/LWC projects, drawn from Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Federal Transit Administration (FTA) and RITA funding programs. The Seattle/LWC UPA projects consist of the following:

  • Variable tolling on all lanes of SR 520 between I-405 and I-5.
  • Active Traffic Management (ATM) on SR 520 and I-90—the major freeway alternate route located about three miles south of SR 520—including lane control, dynamic message and advisory speed limit signage to alert drivers to delays and direct travel away from incident-blocked lanes.
  • Travel time signs to provide travelers headed toward Seattle with real-time travel time estimates for SR 520 and alternate routes.
  • Enhanced bus service on SR 520 adding 90 one-way peak period trips and including purchase of 45 new buses.
  • Improvements to transit stops/stations including improvements to two park-and-ride lots, one of them part of a broader transit oriented development (TOD), and real-time information displays at stops/stations.
  • Various travel demand management strategies funded locally such as employer-based strategies to promote ridesharing or telecommuting.
  • Regional ferry boat improvements which will not be evaluated because they are not expected to impact SR 520 corridor travel.

The local partners' latest deployment schedule (from the September 2009 Term Sheet revision1) calls for almost all of the UPA projects, specifically the following, to be operational no later than June 30, 2011: SR 520 tolling, enhanced bus service, transit real-time information signs and passenger facilities, real-time multi-modal traveler information, and active traffic management. One UPA project was completed much earlier, the Redmond Park-and-Ride/Transit Oriented Development (P&R/TOD) which became operational on June 30, 2009, and one project, the Kirkland park-and-ride lot, will be completed much later (too late to be included in this evaluation), by October 15, 2014.

Evaluation Analyses and Test Plans

The national evaluation of the Seattle/LWC UPA projects focuses on 10 of the 12 analysis areas outlined in the NEF. The Goods Movement and Business Impacts analyses from the NEF will not be performed in Seattle because no significant impacts in those areas are intended or expected. Plans for collecting and analyzing the data to support the 10 analyses are described in 10 test plans. Table ES-1 presents the relationship among the analysis areas and the test plans. The transit analysis area and the transit system data test plan are summarized below to provide an example of the approach used in the Seattle/LWC UPA National Evaluation Plan.

Transit is a key element of the Seattle/LWC UPA. The UPA transit projects focus on making riding the bus in the SR 520 corridor more attractive and convenient by reducing bus travel times on SR 520, increasing trip-time reliability, adding service on SR 520, expanding park-and-ride lot capacity, and providing enhanced traveler information. Table ES-2 presents two of the several transit hypotheses and the related measures of effectiveness, and data.

The first hypothesis and associated measures of effectiveness relate to the increased travel speeds of buses using the SR 520 bridge, the travel-time savings, improved trip-time reliability and enhanced capacity resulting from the variable tolling of SR 520 (which is intended to reduce congestion) and the addition of new transit service. The second hypothesis relates to increasing transit ridership and increasing transit share of total corridor trips. These benefits are intended to result from the improved travel times, added capacity and other improvements assessed in the first hypothesis.

These two examples from the transit analysis typify two prongs of the three-pronged strategy utilized throughout the evaluation. The first prong of that strategy features measuring the "end result" transportation metrics like, in the case of transit, ridership and corridor mode split. The second prong measures changes in variables intended to facilitate the change in the end result metrics—in this transit example this would include transit travel times and transit capacity. The third prong of that strategy (not featured in this specific example which focuses only on the first two transit hypotheses) consists of surveying travelers. Travelers will be surveyed to determine perceptions of the effectiveness and equity of the UPA projects, and—critical to linking causes (specific UPA projects) to observed effects (e.g., changes in ridership)—reported travel behavior changes in response to specific UPA projects.

Plans for collecting and analyzing data pertaining to these two transit hypotheses and all other evaluation hypotheses will be detailed in a series of test plan documents. In the case of transit, data will be collected from a variety of sources including King County Metro's automatic vehicle location (for bus travel times and reliability data) and automated passenger counter (for ridership data) systems and on-board surveys of Metro riders.

Responsibility for collecting evaluation data resides with the Seattle/LWC UPA partners. The evaluation team will provide guidance to partners on data collection and is responsible for analyzing all of the data and reporting results.

Table ES-1. Relationship Among Test Plans and Evaluation Analyses
Seattle UPA Test Plans Evaluation Analysis: Congestion Analysis Evaluation Analysis: Tolling Analysis Evaluation Analysis: Transit Analysis Evaluation Analysis: Telecommuting/ TDM Analysis Evaluation Analysis: Technology Analysis Evaluation Analysis: Safety Analysis Evaluation Analysis: Environmental Analysis Evaluation Analysis: Equity Analysis Evaluation Analysis: Non-Technical Factors Analysis Evaluation Analysis: Cost Benefit Analysis
Traffic System Data Test Plan Major Input Supporting Input Supporting Input Supporting Input Major Input Supporting Input Major Input Supporting Input empty Cell Major Input
Tolling Test Plan empty Cell Major Input empty Cell empty Cell empty Cell empty Cell Supporting Input Supporting Input empty Cell Major Input
Transit System Data Test Plan Supporting Input Supporting Input Major Input Supporting Input Major Input Supporting Input Supporting Input Supporting Input empty Cell Major Input
Telecommuting Data Test Plan Supporting Input empty Cell empty Cell Major Input empty Cell empty Cell Supporting Input Supporting Input empty Cell Supporting Input
Safety Test Plan empty Cell empty Cell empty Cell empty Cell empty Cell Major Input empty Cell empty Cell empty Cell Major Input
Surveys, Interviews & Workshops Test Plan Major Input Major Input Major Input Major Input Major Input Major Input Major Input Major Input Major Input empty Cell
Environmental Data Test Plan Supporting Input empty Cell empty Cell empty Cell empty Cell empty Cell Major Input Supporting Input empty Cell Major Input
Content Analysis Test Plan Supporting Input Supporting Input Supporting Input Supporting Input Supporting Input Supporting Input Supporting Input Supporting Input Major Input empty Cell
Cost Benefit Analysis Test Plan empty Cell empty Cell empty Cell empty Cell empty Cell empty Cell empty Cell empty Cell empty Cell Major Input
Exogenous Factors Test Plan Supporting Input Supporting Input Supporting Input Supporting Input Supporting Input Supporting Input Supporting Input Supporting Input Supporting Input Supporting Input
Major Input — Major Input Supporting Input — Supporting Input

Table ES-2. Illustrative Excerpt from Transit Analysis Approach
Hypotheses/Questions Measures of Effectiveness Data
  • Seattle/LWC UPA projects will enhance transit performance in the SR 520 corridor through reduced travel times, increased reliability, and increased capacity
  • Actual and % change in bus travel speeds
  • Actual and % change in bus travel times
  • Actual and % change in service reliability (schedule adherence/on-time performance)
  • Actual and % change in service capacity
  • Transit travel-speed data
  • Transit travel-time data
  • Transit-reliability and schedule adherence data
  • Transit service characteristics data
  • Seattle/LWC UPA projects will facilitate an increase in ridership and a mode shift to transit on the SR 520 corridor
  • Actual and % change in transit ridership
  • Transit mode share (person throughput by mode) for the entire UPA corridor (SR 520 and alternate routes)
  • Transit mode share for the Redmond P&R/TOD (mode of access used by TOD residents and business patrons) and, as a point of reference, mode shares of comparable non-TOD developments
  • Actual and % change in park-and-ride lot utilization
  • Transit ridership data
  • Traveler survey data
  • Park-and-ride lot utilization data

Next Steps

The next step in the Seattle/LWC UPA National Evaluation is to develop the last, and most detailed, in the series of evaluation planning products, the detailed test plans. After that, collection of baseline data will be initiated. It is anticipated that the draft test plans will be developed in November or December 2009. The results of the Seattle/LWC UPA national evaluation are expected in mid-2012.

1"Amended and Restated Urban Partnership Agreement by and between U.S. Department of Transportation and its Seattle-Area Urban Partner," United States Department of Transportation, September 30, 2009.