Traffic Analysis Toolbox Volume XII:
Work Zone Traffic Analysis – Applications and Decision Framework
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Contact Information: WorkZoneFeedback@dot.gov
U.S. Department of Transportation
Federal Highway Administration
Office of Operations (HOP)
1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
Washington, DC 20590
www.fhwa.dot.gov
Publication #: FHWA-HOP-12-009
April 2012
Table of Contents
1.0 Background and Objectives of this Guidebook
1.1 Overview of Work Zone Traffic Analysis Guidance
1.2 Role of Traffic Analysis Tools for Work Zone Applications
1.3 Organization of this Report
2.0 Establishing a Methodology for Work Zone Traffic Analysis
2.1 Identifying Work Zone Analysis Goals and Objectives
2.2 Selecting Measures of Effectiveness (MOE) and Thresholds
2.3 Identifying MOT Alternative Strategies
2.4 Conducting Fatal Flaw Analysis
2.5 Identifying Needed Coordination Between Projects
2.6 Steps in the Maintenance of Traffic Alternatives Analysis (MOTAA) and Decision Framework Process
3.0 Selecting the Appropriate Type of Traffic Analysis Tool
3.1 Analysis Tool Categories
3.2 Key Factors for Selecting the Analysis Tool(s)
3.3 Selecting The Analysis Tool(s)
3.4 Challenges in Selecting Traffic Analysis Tools for Work Zone Applications.
4.0 Key Considerations for Modeling Approach
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Using Sketch-Planning and Analytical/Deterministic Analysis
4.3 Using Travel Demand Model Analysis
4.4 Using Traffic Signal Optimization Analysis
4.5 Using Macroscopic Analysis
4.6 Using Mesoscopic Analysis
4.7 Using Microscopic Analysis
5.0 Establishing an MOTAA Decision Framework
5.1 Overview of an MOTAA Decision Framework
5.2 Approaches to Factor Prioritization
5.3 Weighting/Scoring Techniques
5.4 Decision-Making Tools for Work Zone Alternatives Analysis
6.0 Reconciling Inconsistencies and Conducting Sensitivity Analysis
6.1 Variations in the Measures of Effectiveness, Tools, and Outputs
6.2 Achieving Consistency of Results When Using Multiple Tools
6.3 Sensitivity Analysis
7.0 Evaluating Factors for MOTAA Recommendations
7.1 Work Zone Key Factors
7.2 Work Zone Safety Analysis
8.0 Analysis Report Structure
8.1 Introduction and Project Background
8.2 Existing and Future Conditions
8.3 Alternatives Considered
8.4 Alternatives Analysis and Decision Framework Methodology
8.5 Analysis Results, Recommended Alternative, and Mitigation Strategies
8.6 Post-implementation and Monitoring Plan
9.0 Work Zone Case Studies
9.1 Simple Flagging Work Zone Projects Using Traffic Signal Optimization Tools – Synchro
9.2 Rural Freeway Lane Closures Using Sketch Planning – Maryland State Highway Administration (SHA) Lane Closure Analysis Program (LCAP)
9.3 Rural Freeway Lane Closures Using Mesoscopic Simulation – DynusT
9.4 Rural Freeway Lane Closures Using Microsimulation – CORSIM
9.5 Urban Freeway Lane Closures Using HCM/Deterministic Tools –FREEVAL
9.6 Urban Freeway Lane Closures Using Sketch-Planning Tools – ITS Deployment Analysis System (IDAS)
9.7 Temporary Two-Way One-Lane Operation on Bridges Using Traffic Signal Optimization Tools – Synchro
9.8 Signalized Corridor Lane Closures Using Traffic Signal Optimization Tools – Synchro/SimTraffic
9.9 Ramp Closures at Major Interchanges Using Traffic Signal Optimization and Microsimulation – Synchro and Paramics
9.10 Corridor Reconstruction with Complex Network-wide Impacts Using Travel Demand Modeling Tools – TRANPLAN
9.11 Corridor Reconstruction with Complex Network-wide Impacts Using Mesoscopic Simulation – INTEGRATION
References
List of Figures
Figure 1. Work Zone Analysis Strategies Decision-Making Engine
Figure 2. Maryland Strategic Emphasis Areas for Work Zone Safety and Mobility
Figure 3. New Jersey DOT Project Impact Matrix
Figure 4. MOTAA and Decision Framework Flowchart
Figure 5. Analytical Work Zone Decision Framework – Modeling Approaches
Figure 6. Work Zone Analysis Scoping Work Sheet
Figure 7. Framework for Identifying Appropriate Modeling Approach for Work Zones
Figure 8. Work Zone Decision-Making Process
Figure 9. Analysis Tool Selection Example: I-123 Reconstruction Project
Figure 10. Work Zone Modeling Spectrum
Figure 11. Locations of Queue Length Evaluation
Figure 12. Typical Model Development and Application Process for Work Zone Analysis
Figure 13. FREEVAL-2010
Figure 14. Experienced Travel Time versus Instantaneous Travel Time
Figure 15. O-D Matrix Calibration in Mesoscopic Models
Figure 16. Expected Level of Effort by Project Tasks for Microsimulation Projects
Figure 17. Example of a Traditional Decision-Framework
Figure 18. Weighting/Scoring Technique Framework
Figure 19. AHP Hierarchical Tree Example
Figure 20. Illustration of Relationships among Factors
Figure 21. Benefit/Cost Analysis Summary Results Example
Figure 22. Elements of CBR
Figure 23. Four Set Case Model – Work Zone Example
Figure 24. Work Zone Traffic Control CBR System
Figure 25. CBR System General Set
Figure 26. CBR System Problem Set
Figure 27. CBR System Effects Object
Figure 28. CBR System Solution Set
Figure 29. Preliminary Strategy Selection Matrix
Figure 30. Example Secondary Strategy Matrix: Construction
Figure 31. Level of Interdependence Matrix
Figure 32. I-15 Analysis Process
Figure 33. Lane Distribution at 1,000 Feet Upstream of Taper for Five Percent Trucks in a Two to One Configuration
Figure 34. Parameter Combinations for Two- to One-Lane Configuration
Figure 35. Summary of Cost Comparison for Scenarios and Maintenance Crews
Figure 36. Sensitivity Analysis Results for Crews 1 and 2
Figure 37. Sensitivity Analysis Results for Crews 3 and 4
Figure 38. Work Zone Travel Delay Analysis
Figure 39. SSAM Screenshot
Figure 40. Four-Way Flagging Work Zone Layout
Figure 41. Three-Way Flagging Work Zone Configuration
Figure 42. I-95 Howard County, Maryland Study Area Map
Figure 43. I-95 NB, Howard County, LCAP Output Trial 1 – Closure from 10:00 P.M. Wednesday to 5:00 A.M. Thursday
Figure 44. I-95 NB, Howard County, LCAP Output Trial 2 – Closure from 11:00 P.M. Wednesday to 5:00 A.M. Thursday
Figure 45. I-95 Howard County, LCAP Model Outputs
Figure 46. I-10/Loop 375 Case Study Project Area Map
Figure 47. I-10/Loop 375 Case Study – Lane-Miles with LOS Changes for Scenario 2.0
Figure 48. I-80 Work Zone Study Area
Figure 49. Delay Associated with Varying Headway Expansion Factors
Figure 50. Summary of Benefits and Costs for each Alternatives
Figure 51. I-40 Case Study Project Overview
Figure 52. Work Zone Impacts and Analysis Tools
Figure 53. HCM 2010 FREEVAL-WZ, I-40 Case Study Scenarios
Figure 54. I-40 Work Zone Scenarios Demand Profiles
Figure 55. Speed Contour Plot Comparisons
Figure 56. I-40 Case Study Work Zone Scenarios Travel Time Comparisons
Figure 57. I-40 Case Study Work Zone Scenarios Capacity Comparisons
Figure 58. I-40 Case Study Work Zone Scenarios Speed Contour Comparisons
Figure 59. I-496 Case Study Project Area Map
Figure 60. I-496 Reconstruction Project Phasing
Figure 61. I-496 Case Study – TTMS Benefits Summary (Phase 1)
Figure 62. I-496 Case Study – Arterial Upgrades Benefits Summary (Phase 1)
Figure 63. MD 23 Case Study Project Area Map
Figure 64. MD 23 Case Study – One-Lane Bridge Operations Layout
Figure 65. Shady Grove Road Work Zone Area Map
Figure 66. Shady Grove Road – Extent of Analysis
Figure 67. MD SHA Work Zone Analysis Guide Mobility Thresholds for Arterials
Figure 68. I-465 West Leg Reconstruction, Indianapolis Overview
Figure 69. I-465 Case Study Rockville Road Interchange Reconstruction Study Area
Figure 70. Rockville Road/U.S. 36 Interchange Ramp Closures
Figure 71. Rockville Road Case Study – Example Model Extents
Figure 72. Rockville Road Interchange Case Study – Locations of Zones for O-D Table
Figure 73. Rockville Road Interchange Case Study – Example AM Peak Period Existing Conditions O-D Table
Figure 74. Rockville Road Interchange – Existing Conditions Model 24-Hour Demand Profile
Figure 75. Rockville Road Interchange – Average Network Speed
Figure 76. Rockville Road Interchange – Average Number of Vehicles
Figure 77. Rockville Road Interchange – Average Network Delays
Figure 78. Rockville Road Interchange – Cumulative Network Delays
Figure 79. Rockville Road Interchange Reconstruction – Cumulative Network Delays during the Construction Period
Figure 80. I-465 West Leg, Rockville Road Interchange Reconstruction Decision Framework Example
Figure 81. Cleveland Innerbelt Project
Figure 82. Cleveland Innerbelt Corridor Sections
Figure 83. Ohio DOT Permitted Lane Closure Map (PLCM)
Figure 84. Cleveland Innerbelt Study: V/C Ratio Thematic Map (Alternative 1 – Full Closure)
Figure 85. Cleveland Innerbelt Study: V/C Ratio Thematic Map (Alternative 2 – Partial Closure)
Figure 86. Cleveland Innerbelt Study: Maintenance of Traffic Corridors Map
Figure 87. I-80 Eastbound Existing Conditions
Figure 88. I-80 Eastbound Contract Staging Plan
Figure 89. I-80 Eastbound Contractor Staging Alternative (Three-Lane Staging Plan)
Figure 90. I-80 Eastbound Alternatives Analysis Results
List of Tables
Table 1. Pros and Cons of Sketch-Planning Tools for WZTA
Table 2. Pros and Cons of Analytical/Deterministic Tools for WZTA
Table 3. Pros and Cons of Travel Demand Models for WZTA
Table 4. Pros and Cons of Traffic Signal Optimization Tools for WZTA
Table 5. Pros and Cons of Macroscopic Simulation Models for WZTA
Table 6. Pros and Cons of Mesoscopic Simulation Models for WZTA
Table 7. Pros and Cons of Microscopic Simulation Models for WZTA
Table 8. Project Stages
Table 9. Facility Types
Table 10. Tool Features
Table 11. Agency Resources Required for Analysis
Table 12. Work Zone Characteristics
Table 13. TMP Strategies
Table 14. Performance Measures
Table 15. Example Criteria Relevance Weight
Table 16. Tool Relevance Values – Project Stages
Table 17. Tool Relevance Values – Facility Types
Table 18. Tool Relevance Values – Tool Features
Table 19. Tool Relevance Values – Agency Resources Required for Analysis
Table 20. Tool Relevance Values – Work Zone Characteristics
Table 21. Tool Relevance Values – TMP Strategies
Table 22. Tool Relevance Values – Performance Measures
Table 23. Example Criteria Score Calculation
Table 24. Example Total Score Calculation
Table 25. Work Zone Analysis Scoring Sheet
Table 26. Example Work Zone Analysis Scoring Sheet: I-123 Corridor Reconstruction Project
Table 27. Table Work Zone Lane Capacity Defaults that Can Be Used in the Absence of Better Data: Short-Term Work Zones
Table 28. Work Zone Lane Capacity Defaults that Can Be Used in the Absence of Better Data: Long-Term Work Zones
Table 29. Work Zone Data Collection – Common Data
Table 30. Parameters to Adjust for Work Zone Analysis in Common Sketch- Planning and Analytical/Deterministic Analysis Tools
Table 31. Parameters to Adjust for Work Zone Analysis in Common Signal Optimization Software
Table 32. Mobility Thresholds for Arterials (MD SHA)
Table 33. Parameters to Adjust for Work Zone Analysis in Common Macroscopic Simulation Software
Table 34. Parameters to Adjust for Work Zone Analysis in Common Mesoscopic Simulation Software
Table 35. Level of Effort for Various Microsimulation Projects
Table 36. Parameters to Adjust for Work Zone Analysis in Common Microsimulation Software
Table 37. Factor Prioritization Methodologies Summary
Table 38. Pros and Cons of the Delphi Method
Table 39. Delphi Technique Example
Table 40. Delphi Example Scale Reference
Table 41. Delphi Example – Round 2 Questionnaire
Table 42. Delphi Example – Round 3
Table 43. Pros and Cons of Factor Analysis
Table 44. List of Potential Variables
Table 45. Example Factor Matrix
Table 46. Example Factor Scores
Table 47. Pros and Cons of the Ranking System
Table 48. Pros and Cons of the Ratio System
Table 49. Example of a Paired Comparison Analysis
Table 50. Pros and Cons of the Paired Comparison Analysis
Table 51. Pros and Cons of the 100-Point Distribution
Table 52. Assigning Criteria Weights – Ranking Method
Table 53. Assigning Criteria Weights – Ratio Method
Table 54. Assigning Criteria Weights – Paired Comparison Method
Table 55. Assigning Criteria Weights – 100-Point Distribution
Table 56. Evaluation Tools and Methods for Comparing Alternatives
Table 57. Example Score for Alternatives
Table 58. SAW Example
Table 59. Pros and Cons of SAW
Table 60. Pairwise Comparison Matrix
Table 61. Pairwise Matrix in Decimal Form
Table 62. Generating the Eigenvector
Table 63. Criteria Rankings/Weights
Table 64. Pairwise Comparison of Alternatives
Table 65. AHP Final Score and Recommendation
Table 66. Pros and Cons of AHP
Table 67. Pros and Cons of Kepner-Tregoe Method
Table 68. Pros and Cons of Benefit/Cost Analysis
Table 69. Pros and Cons of the CBR Tool
Table 70. Pros and Cons of the Matrix-Based Decision Support Tool
Table 71. Performance Measures and Outputs by Tool Type
Table 72. MOEs, Tools, and Outputs Utilized for I-15 Pavement Reconstruction Case Study
Table 73. I-15 Preconstruction Analysis Results
Table 74. Example Scenario Demand Adjustment Factors
Table 75. Example Scenario Capacity Adjustment Factors
Table 76. NETZONE Example General Statistics
Table 77. Closure Options for I-15 Devore Project
Table 78. Quadro Road User Cost Output Example
Table 79. Summary of Safety Surrogate Measures
Table 80. MOTAA Reporting Components Checklist
Table 81. Work Zone Case Studies Summary
Table 82. Summary of Data and Assumptions
Table 83. Alternative 1 – Synchro Model Outputs
Table 84. Alternative 2 – Synchro Model Outputs
Table 85. Recommended Work Zone Alternative
Table 86. Summary of Alternatives Analysis Modeling Results
Table 87. Value of Travel Time Savings
Table 88. Incremental Benefits and Costs for Each Alternative (in Thousands)
Table 89. MD 23 Case Study – Clearance Interval Calculations
Table 90. MD 23 One-Lane Bridge Operations – Synchro Model Outputs
Table 91. Shady Grove Existing Conditions Model Outputs
Table 92. Shady Grove Road – Work Zone Base Model Outputs
Table 93. Shady Grove Road – Existing (Weekend Work Zone) Model Outputs
